Presidential popularity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nIn the last 42 years, a total of 37 presidents from 14 countries in the region, whose elections took place in a free and transparent environment, entered the months leading up to the start of the electoral campaign with positive approval ratings. In 29 cases (78%), there was a decisive transfer of the executive’s popularity to the ruling party’s presidential candidate, translating into votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Latin America, the executive\u2019s positive approval tends to reasonably predict the continuity of the ruling party’s power. This holds true regardless of whether the ruling party\u2019s presidential candidate is the sitting president, whether the electoral process involves two rounds, or whether the contest is between electoral coalitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In fact, the correlation rate between presidential approval and the ruling party’s electoral outcome in Uruguay over the seven presidential elections held between 1989 and 2019 is 85.71%, placing Uruguay among the most consistent in the region. However, in the two instances when presidents were well-rated\u2014Tabar\u00e9 V\u00e1zquez (2005\/2010) and Jos\u00e9 Mujica (2010\/2015)\u2014there was continuity in the subsequent government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the current campaign, public perception of the performance of center-right president Luis Lacalle Pou has been positive throughout his term. Indeed, in the second half of 2022, presidential approval dropped to 39%, associated with the impact of the “Astesiano case,” a major corruption scandal affecting the president\u2019s inner circle. However, at the beginning of 2023, approval ratings returned to a positive trend. What is truly relevant is that before the start of the electoral campaign, approval of the presidential administration stood at 49%, far surpassing the percentage of those who disapproved (32%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Exceptions to the rule<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nAlthough support for a president sets the trend for what happens in the next elections, there are exceptions. In the 2009 presidential elections in Chile, the candidate of the ruling coalition, Eduardo Frei, entered the campaign bolstered by the high approval of President Michelle Bachelet (78%). However, the leftist candidate was defeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
More recently, in the 2020 presidential elections in the Dominican Republic, the ruling Dominican Liberation Party\u2019s candidate, Gonzalo Castillo, also campaigned with the high approval of then-President Danilo Medina (56%). However, he was also defeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These examples make us question why presidential popularity matters in some cases and not in others. One answer is that, regardless of how high the executive’s approval level may be, the transfer of popularity and its translation into votes for the ruling party\u2019s presidential candidate tends to be nullified if the ruling party faces the electoral contest divided. Therefore, a combination of positive presidential approval and cohesion within the ruling party or coalition is the best predictor of the ruling party\u2019s continuity in power in the region\u2019s democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The unity of the ruling coalition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nAs a rule, no event tests the unity of the ruling party more than the internal selection process for the presidential candidate. The National Party successfully navigated this hurdle. Its presidential candidate, \u00c1lvaro Delgado, won the primary elections on June 30 with a decisive 74% against Laura Raffo, who immediately expressed support for the party’s internal cohesion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By that time, President Lacalle Pou had overcome the main challenge he faced during his administration: keeping the Republican Coalition\u2014a coalition made up of center-right, right-wing and smaller parties\u2014united throughout the five years of government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Throughout the period, there were moments of extreme tension, such as when the president requested the resignation of Minister Irene Moreira, a member of Cabildo Abierto, one of the coalition\u2019s parties. However, neither this incident nor others caused significant damage to the coalition, which entered the electoral campaign strengthened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, although Uruguay’s left and its new presidential candidate<\/a>, Yamand\u00fa Orsi, are well-positioned to win power according to the polls, they must not underestimate these two variables, which have proven reasonably persistent in predicting electoral outcomes in the region’s democracies and, this time, are not precisely in their favor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In Latin America, the executive\u2019s positive approval tends to reasonably predict the continuity of the ruling party’s power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":44743,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16818,16826],"tags":[17180],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-44760","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elecciones-en","8":"category-uruguay-en","9":"tag-ideas"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44760"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44760\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44760"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=44760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}