{"id":47835,"date":"2025-04-16T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=47835"},"modified":"2025-04-16T07:57:03","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T10:57:03","slug":"noboa-wins-and-with-him-the-benefit-of-the-doubt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/noboa-wins-and-with-him-the-benefit-of-the-doubt\/","title":{"rendered":"Noboa wins, and with him, the benefit of the doubt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ecuador\u2019s first round of the 2025 presidential election marked an unprecedented milestone: two political forces captured nearly 90% of the vote, reflecting an increasingly polarized political system. The race was razor-thin, but what was expected to be a close runoff ended in a 10-point lead. What tipped the scale? What explains the gap between the president and his main rival? Was fear of the return of corre\u00edsmo what propped up Daniel Noboa<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike previous elections, this time corre\u00edsmo faced an incumbent president, weighed down by the responsibilities of governing. Noboa\u2019s first-round results showed a decline from 2023\u2014he paid the price for a term perceived as ineffective: blackouts lasting up to 14 hours, a security crisis<\/a> with no visible results, and a rudderless economic downturn. Even so, in the runoff, his results were enough to secure victory with 55% over the 44% won by the Citizen Revolution candidate, who appeared to stagnate in the second round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The desire for stability and fear of disruption<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The phrase \u201cbetter the devil you know than the devil you don\u2019t\u201d captures what happened. In a context where corruption and violence have become normalized, Ecuador chose stability\u2014albeit mediocre\u2014over the risks of the unknown. Noboa\u2019s voters are aware of the criticism he faces. Still, many justify his governance, downplay his mistakes, or shift the blame to external factors: \u201che inherited a destroyed country,\u201d \u201che\u2019s only had a short time,\u201d \u201cCongress and the mafias are blocking him.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People fear that a radical change could bring more chaos and uncertainty, especially in such a fragile environment. Rather than bet on an uncertain transformation, many Ecuadorians preferred an imperfect government that offered at least minimal certainties. Some elections are about change, others about stability. Ecuador chose stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s important to remember that in the 2025 first round, the electorate largely mirrored its 2023 preferences. Both corre\u00edsmo and Noboa relied on borrowed votes, especially in cities like Quito. The polarization lies in the political offer, not in voter demand. Society shifts support from one side to another with ease. The soft vote on both sides shows increasing volatility: voters switch from one election to the next. Many made pragmatic\u2014not ideological\u2014decisions: Who can bring stability? Who can address urgent problems? Ecuador is in a structural crisis\u2014economic, institutional, social\u2014that pushes voters to seek minimal certainties, not grand promises. And there stood Noboa. At the core, Ecuadorians are not asking for miracles\u2014they want results. Security, stability, peace. Noboa gained the benefit of the doubt that he could provide them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite a lack of concrete outcomes, his short term in office, his still-fresh image compared to his opponents, and the perception that \u201che\u2019s not that bad\u201d gave him leeway. His message that \u201cEcuador is moving forward\u201d allowed him to be judged not by the effectiveness of his decisions, but by his potential. Ecuador granted him an extension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The shadows of Corre\u00edsmo: Dollarization, drug trafficking, and Venezuela<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Noboa\u2019s support doesn\u2019t necessarily stem from his own merits, but rather from the need to avoid a scenario even more widely rejected: the return of corre\u00edsmo. For many, the continuation of the current administration was less frightening than corre\u00edsmo\u2019s comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes, avoiding mistakes is more important than getting it right. And that\u2019s what happened to corre\u00edsmo. Although Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez didn\u2019t explicitly propose changing the dollarization regime, the issue dominated the runoff debate due to ambiguous statements from her camp. Demobilizing Luisa\u2019s voters was just as important as mobilizing Noboa\u2019s base, and on the topic of dollarization, Noboa found a key opportunity to sow doubt about the country\u2019s economic future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another crucial issue was security. In the Ecuadorian collective mindset, there\u2019s a prevailing idea that the peace during Correa\u2019s government was achieved through pacts with drug traffickers. Although this idea isn\u2019t backed by solid evidence\u2014experts point to a combination of public policy, material conditions, and external factors\u2014the \u201cpact\u201d narrative has taken hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019s campaign failed to dismantle that perception. It focused on accusing Noboa of alleged ties to the same underworld but lacked convincing proof or an alternative narrative. Moreover, corre\u00edsmo\u2014like many leftist projects\u2014argues that security must be tackled alongside poverty, as two sides of the same coin. While valid, that stance is hard to explain to an electorate that wants a \u201ctough hand\u201d and admires figures like Bukele (Latinobar\u00f3metro, 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. A heterogeneous base: Support that goes beyond anti-corre\u00edsmo<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Support for Noboa is heterogeneous: women, youth, middle and lower classes, impoverished sectors seeking some form of stability amid chaos. In 2023, impoverished provinces in the Central Highlands voted for him. In the first round of 2025, those votes went to Iza, but in the runoff they returned to Noboa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The middle class\u2014which is really a popular class with aspirations\u2014distrusts projects like the Citizen Revolution. In Noboa, they see a personalized figure: a young businessman with international projection (ties to Trump, global image), husband of a public figure perceived as relatable and altruistic. This isn\u2019t right-wing ideology in action: it\u2019s the power of personalization in a country where trust in institutions has collapsed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The image of a self-made man, a young entrepreneur and family man, adds a layer of emotional trust. And that support is evident in impoverished areas like the Central Highlands. Iza\u2019s support wasn\u2019t strong enough to consolidate a unified front against Noboa. His leadership, though symbolically powerful, failed to offer a unified or organic vision. Many who backed him in 2023 returned to Noboa without ideological conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Machiavelli said that a successful ruler doesn\u2019t rely solely on luck, but on the ability to master fortune with boldness, virtue, and preparation. He also warned that the secret to power lies in timing. Noboa seized his moment: he made the fear of the past the central issue, rather than his own project. Because history doesn\u2019t always reward the best\u2014it rewards those who know how to seize their chance. And this time, Noboa did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Machine translation proofread by Jana\u00edna da Silva.<\/em><\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a context of normalized corruption and violence, Ecuador preferred stability, albeit mediocre, rather than risk the unknown.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":713,"featured_media":47820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16818,16820],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-47835","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elecciones-en","8":"category-ecuador-en","9":"tag-debates"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/713"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47835"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=47835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}