{"id":51456,"date":"2025-09-28T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=51456"},"modified":"2025-11-03T11:30:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T14:30:07","slug":"the-lost-art-of-the-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/the-lost-art-of-the-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"The lost Art of the Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In The History of the Peloponnesian War<\/em>, Thucydides wrote \u201cthe strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must.\u201d American foreign policy has often internalized this ethos<\/a>, particularly when engaging with less powerful states. But Thucydides\u2019 observation fails to capture a defining reality of modern diplomacy: domestic politics constrain everyone<\/a>. Leaders must navigate complex, nationalist sentiments and demands of legitimacy. When American policymakers ignore those constraints<\/a>, their initiatives falter. Worse, they provoke unintended consequences that undermine long-term U.S. interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump administration has provided textbook examples of this self-defeating pattern. Rather than forcing concessions, Trump\u2019s actions stiffened resistance<\/a> and fueled push back<\/a> against Washington.  Effective diplomacy requires more than dominance or deals. It requires understanding that leaders operate within constraints<\/a> that cannot be swept aside. It requires appreciating when public opinion will punish capitulation. The United States remains the strongest actor in the hemisphere, but strength without empathy is not strategy. It\u2019s provocation<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Canada and bolstering the Liberals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump\u2019s rhetoric and tactics toward Canada<\/a> showcase how misreading an ally\u2019s domestic politics can backfire<\/a>. Emboldened by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s lagging poll numbers, Trump imposed<\/a> sweeping tariffs\u2014ostensibly to close trade gaps and demand firmer border enforcement around immigration and fentanyl trafficking<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada responded<\/a> swiftly. Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately $30 billion of U.S. goods. More was initially planned, but the Trump\u2019s repeated suggestion that Canada should become the \u201c51st state<\/a>\u201d crossed the line from bravado to affront. . Canadians launched a widespread boycott<\/a> of U.S. goods and  travel, with more than 90% of Canadians supporting reduced economic dependence on the United States. Canadians also took their opposition to Trump to the polls<\/a>, electing the Liberal Party\u2019s Mark Carney in an election that months before had appeared an all but certain win for the Conservative Party. As Carney took office, he sought to diversify<\/a> Canada\u2019s economy away from U.S. dependency by encouraging internal reform and emphasizing global partnerships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. policymakers neglected to account for political backlash<\/a> in Canada. What Trump saw as leverage triggered domestic backlash and strengthened Canadian resolve<\/a>. The result: deeper polarization and less U.S. influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stoking nationalist pride in Brazil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further to the South, Trump is making the same miscalculation. As the Brazilian courts handle<\/a> the fallout of the failed effort to oust President Luiz Inacio \u201cLula\u201d da Silva by supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro\u2014an event with striking similarities<\/a> to the January 6th insurrection in the United States\u2014Trump levied tariffs<\/a> on Brazilian imports and sanctioned<\/a> Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Trump framed these measures as a response to what he termed a \u201cpolitically motivated witch\u2011hunt<\/a>\u201d against Bolsonaro. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a sharp surge in nationalist sentiment in Brazil. President Lula rejected Trump\u2019s moves as violations<\/a> of Brazilian sovereignty. Brazil filed a complaint<\/a> with the World Trade Organization and activated its new \u201cTrade Reciprocity Law\u201d to announce retaliatory tariffs. Its Supreme Court publicly vowed<\/a> to resist U.S. interference. Brazilian leaders repeatedly underlined that no amount of Washington\u2019s pressure would sway<\/a> them on domestic legal processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than isolate the government, Trump\u2019s aggressive posture elevated Lula\u2019s standing, with approval numbers rising<\/a> as he cast himself as a pragmatic defender of democracy and national pride. Even some business elites<\/a>, facing tough export prospects under tariffs, publicly reaffirmed their support for Lula\u2019s defiant posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Panama and the risk of a bridge to far<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s insistence that the United States \u201ctake back<\/a>\u201d the Panama Canal has also sparked backlash and could further undermine regional affairs. While it is true that the United States supported<\/a> Panamanian independence\u2014largely in exchange for concessions to what would become the Canal Zone\u2014and built the Panama Canal, U.S. intervention has long<\/a> been a sticking point in regional relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump shared his intent to \u201cretake\u201d the Panama Canal before taking office\u2014a move that sparked backlash not only in Panama, but across the region. For his part, Panamanian President Jos\u00e9 Ra\u00fal Mulino has been forced to walk a careful line<\/a> between geopolitical and local pressures. Although, Mulino had already taken steps to reexamine the Sino-Panamanian relationship, the Trump administration demanded that Mulino do more to counter Chinese economic activity. Mulino has delivered immediate concessions to Washington\u2014exiting China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative<\/a>, signing a security arrangement granting U.S. troop access<\/a> to Panamanian facilities, and scrutinizing port operators<\/a> linked to Beijing. While, these moves signal alignment with Trump\u2019s hemispheric agenda, political support for Mulino is eroding\u2014and social resistance is mounting. Mulino entered office with a mandate built in part on distancing<\/a> Panama from China, yet U.S. pressure is eroding his political capital. Massive protests erupted<\/a> in Panama City following the security pact with the United States, described by critics as a \u201ccamouflaged invasion.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The risks of ignoring other state\u2019s politics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not just a Trump problem. Across administrations, both Democratic and Republican, foreign policy toward the Western Hemisphere has often reduced<\/a> relationships to instruments of pressure or short-term bargaining. The Biden<\/a> administration, while rhetorically more committed to democratic norms, leaned heavily on securitized migration messaging and made overtures to regimes whose legitimacy was contested. Inconsistencies<\/a> in tone and an overemphasis on countering China have deepened skepticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the Biden<\/a> and Trump<\/a> administrations gravely overemphasized the dangers posed by China\u2014without providing viable alternatives. Biden spoke of \u201cmanaged competition\u201d and coalition-building, but failed to back those words with meaningful new investments or soft\u2011power initiatives in the region. Washington frequently assumes simple binaries: align with the U.S. or with China\u2014no third path. However, many Latin America states have pragmatically sought to maintain ties with both powers rather than capitulating to U.S. pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When U.S. policymakers assume that strength equals compliance, they ignore the political incentives facing their counterparts. U.S. diplomacy<\/a> toward the hemisphere too often treats leaders like pliable agents\u2014not elected officials responsive to robust domestic constituencies. That fundamental misreading leads not to cooperation, but resistance<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump administration\u2019s actions crystallize a strategic dilemma<\/a>: Washington continues to frame the region through the lens of coercion, ignoring how deeply political dynamics shape outcomes. Trump\u2019s aggressive posture underscores that strength alone does not compel cooperation\u2014it provokes resistance, empowers nationalist narratives, and undermines long-term influence. The United States still holds unmatched power in the hemisphere\u2014but power without understanding quickly loses legitimacy. To shape durable outcomes in the Americas, Washington must relearn the art of the deal\u2014rooted in political awareness and long-term strategy, not just transactional might.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. foreign policy continues to rely on coercion, but by ignoring the internal dynamics of its partners, it ends up generating resistance, nationalism, and a loss of influence in the region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":807,"featured_media":51473,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16868,16805],"tags":[17180],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-51456","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-relaiciones-internacionales-en","8":"category-donald-trump-en","9":"tag-ideas"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/807"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51456\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51473"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51456"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=51456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}