{"id":56051,"date":"2026-04-13T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=56051"},"modified":"2026-04-14T00:33:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T03:33:52","slug":"the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-fragility-of-the-global-energy-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-fragility-of-the-global-energy-system\/","title":{"rendered":"The Strait of Hormuz and the Fragility of the Global Energy System"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Iran\u2019s decision to block the transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, following the outbreak of conflict with the United States and Israel, has materialized longstanding concerns among geopolitical analysts and energy policymakers regarding the vulnerabilities of national energy systems, many of which are structured through networks that transcend borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict highlights two central dimensions of this vulnerability. On the one hand, it exposes the fragility of oil and gas production in countries in this region in the face of armed conflict. On the other, it reveals the high dependence of consuming countries on flows of oil, natural gas, and derivatives concentrated in a region historically marked by geopolitical tensions, in which petrodollars play a central role in shaping the domestic and external power of producing states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Compounding this is the growing awareness of market actors\u2019 dependence on critical logistical corridors and their inclusion as targets in conflict scenarios. In this context, the Strait of Hormuz\u2014one of the main chokepoints in global energy supply\u2014emerges as a critical link whose disruption underscores the instrumentalization of geographic position as a geopolitical weapon, generating severe disruptions in global energy supply with significant economic consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What has happened?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 28, with the onset of hostilities by the United States and Israel against Iran, followed by Iranian reprisals, transport flows of oil, natural gas, and other raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz were halted, preventing the movement of approximately 19% of the global oil supply and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the form in which gas is cooled and converted into liquid to facilitate large-scale transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a direct consequence, a supply gap of around 11 million barrels per day emerged in the international market. In the case of natural gas, approximately 286 billion cubic meters of LNG flows were also disrupted\u2014a volume comparable to the amount no longer supplied via pipelines from Russia to Europe during the early stages of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the blockade significantly affected the supply of other derivatives linked to the oil and gas chain, such as nitrogen-based fertilizers, helium, and sulfur. The importance of Middle Eastern countries as major suppliers of these products amplified the effects of the disruption, with repercussions not only in the energy sector but also in critical production chains such as agriculture and the chemical industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the conflict intensified, the downward trend in oil, natural gas, and derivative prices observed throughout 2025 reversed abruptly, giving rise to a scenario of rapid increases and volatility. Prices surged: Brent crude, which hovered around $69 in January, surpassed the $100 mark, reflecting high uncertainty regarding the duration and intensity of the hostilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impacts quickly spread globally through rising energy prices. Asian countries, which account for nearly 80% of Middle Eastern oil exports and 90% of its natural gas exports, have been particularly affected, facing supply pressures, rising costs, and the adoption of emergency measures such as price controls, consumption subsidies, and rationing policies, as well as other incentives to reduce energy consumption. However, the effects are already being felt in Europe and parts of Africa, with a tendency to worsen in the short term as temporary mitigation measures begin to run out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response, various measures have been adopted to contain volatility and reduce the supply deficit. The United States government has emphasized the temporary nature of its military actions while selectively easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil to supply major consumer markets such as India. Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have redirected part of their exports through alternative routes via pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, OECD countries agreed on the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. Taken together, the most optimistic estimates suggest that these initiatives have partially reduced the supply deficit to around 8 million barrels per day\u2014still exceeding the total consumption of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these measures, there is a perception that the market has not yet fully internalized the severity of the situation. Even with the continuation of the ceasefire announced on April 7, the resumption of oil, gas, and derivative production operations in some countries, and the recovery of transport flows, it may take months for activities to return to normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the conflict be prolonged and escalate, with greater impacts on the region\u2019s critical energy infrastructure\u2014something Gulf producers have sought to avoid by not becoming militarily involved\u2014the situation could evolve into an energy crisis with far greater economic impacts than those observed in previous episodes, such as the 1973 oil embargo or the early stages of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. In that scenario, benchmark prices for oil, LNG, and their derivatives could climb even higher, potentially triggering demand destruction and pushing the global economy toward higher inflation and a recessionary environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternatives<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, developments in the Middle East compel oil, gas, and derivative-importing countries to prepare to navigate the current context of uncertainty affecting energy markets and to anticipate the impacts already being reflected in fuel and other product costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this regard, the response to the crisis, if prolonged, must combine short- and long-term measures. In the short term, it is essential for importing countries to adopt mechanisms that reduce exposure to the supply shock, particularly protecting lower-income populations, which tend to be disproportionately affected by rising energy prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the medium and long term, it is crucial to advance the diversification of oil and natural gas supply sources, prioritizing partnerships with more stable regions whenever possible, even if this entails higher short-term costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Countries most exposed to the supply shock must intensify efforts to diversify their energy matrices, improve efficiency, and promote the expansion of lower-carbon energy sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, these strategies must be implemented gradually, taking advantage of opportunities based on each country\u2019s conditions and existing technological pathways. This is due to the persistent centrality of oil and natural gas in the global energy supply, whose substitution is not straightforward. Sectors such as heavy transport, aviation, maritime shipping, and the petrochemical industry remain highly dependent on these resources, given the limited availability of competitive large-scale technological alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, although electrification is advancing as one of the main decarbonization strategies across various segments of the economy, its application remains limited precisely in the most difficult areas of transition, reinforcing the need for gradual approaches that combine energy security and sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In sum, rather than a temporary disruption, the current conflict exposes structural limits of an energy system anchored in the geographic concentration of resources and dependence on critical routes. In this scenario, energy security reasserts itself as a central axis of strategic decision-making, requiring a more balanced approach between cost, resilience, and risk management in an increasingly uncertain global context.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows how a single critical chokepoint can destabilize the global energy system, exposing its profound fragility in the face of geopolitical conflicts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":266,"featured_media":56039,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17111,17149],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-56051","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energia-en","8":"category-guerra-en","9":"tag-debates"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/266"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56051"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56054,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56051\/revisions\/56054"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56051"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=56051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}