{"id":56286,"date":"2026-05-03T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-03T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=56286"},"modified":"2026-05-04T10:45:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T13:45:44","slug":"transitions-without-rupture-lessons-from-latin-america-for-post-orban-hungary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/transitions-without-rupture-lessons-from-latin-america-for-post-orban-hungary\/","title":{"rendered":"Transitions without rupture: Lessons from Latin America for post-Orb\u00e1n Hungary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The winner of Hungary\u2019s recent elections, P\u00e9ter Magyar, described the defeated government of Viktor Orb\u00e1n as a \u201ccriminal organization.\u201d But beyond any crimes that might be proven, could the former president be convicted for attacking democracy and the rule of law? This is a key element in democratic transitions and the central issue for the future of Hungary\u2019s democracy. History shows that when authoritarians have not been punished, often they have returned to power and attacked democracy again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The history of how Latin America has addressed the legacy of dictators and would-be dictators\u2014from the trials of Argentina\u2019s military juntas in the 1980s to the recent trial of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil\u2014offers a historical lesson for Hungary. And perhaps also for the United States after the Trump era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"190\" src=\"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1024x190.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-50869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1024x190.png 1024w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-300x56.png 300w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-768x142.png 768w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1536x284.png 1536w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-2048x379.png 2048w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-150x28.png 150w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-696x129.png 696w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1068x198.png 1068w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1920x356.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Democratic transitions, while they generate hope among much of the population, are also delicate, slow, and frustration-prone processes. Post-Orb\u00e1n Hungary is and will be all of that. The crowds dancing in front of the Hungarian Parliament after Magyar\u2019s victory recalled those who danced atop the Berlin Wall in 1989, and on Buenos Aires\u2019 Avenida 9 de Julio in 1983. However, those were cases of political transitions from authoritarian regimes to democratic ones. Hungary\u2019s situation is different, and we may be facing a new type of democratization process. It is not about the end of authoritarianism, but about the end of the \u201cde-liberalization\u201d of democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What defined Orb\u00e1n\u2019s government as non-democratic was the enactment, since 2011, of sweeping constitutional reforms that entrenched conservative values, strengthened political control over the judiciary, altered electoral procedures, centralized power, and undermined human rights. The erosion of the rule of law, the dismantling of checks and balances, and the \u201ccolonization\u201d of civic institutions, media, and independent state agencies by Fidesz transformed Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Hungary into a singular political regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Various scholars have described this regime as a mafia state, a hybrid democracy, a would-be fascist system, a form of legal authoritarianism, or an illiberal regime with autocratic features. Hungary was no longer a democracy, but neither was it a full-fledged authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019s challenges will not be very different from those faced by Alfons\u00edn in Argentina, Su\u00e1rez in Spain, Wa\u0142\u0119sa in Poland, or Frei in Chile\u2014transitions to democracy that involved constitutional reforms, laws that established the supremacy of civilian authority, rehabilitated political parties, and expanded civil and political rights, without carrying out massive purges of the security apparatus, overhauling the entire judicial system, or prosecuting entire cadres of the previous regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Argentina\u2019s case, Ra\u00fal Alfons\u00edn faced several military uprisings, and Adolfo Su\u00e1rez had to contend with a coup attempt and far-right terrorism. Therefore, it is likely that the new government will face internal resistance and sabotage from Orb\u00e1n loyalists, especially if it seeks to dismantle the obstacles imposed by the previous regime. This could generate instability and re-legitimize Orb\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this way, we may be witnessing a new type of democratization process, emerging from a regime that actively dismantled the rule of law and democratic institutions, but had not yet crossed the threshold into full authoritarianism\u2014as evidenced by its electoral reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil and the <a href=\"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/the-us-cuba-negotiation-transition-or-adaptive-resistance\/\">United States<\/a> followed a similar path recently, in 2022\u201323 and 2020\u20132021 respectively. Although in both cases we cannot speak of a \u201cTrump regime\u201d or a \u201cBolsonaro regime,\u201d it is clear that both sought to subvert democracy, as shown by their respective coup attempts. By denying the results of the 2020 election and promoting lies about electoral fraud, Trump redefined populist politics, enabling and inspiring other leaders to deny the electoral legitimacy of their opponents. Trump\u2019s attempted coup on January 6, 2021, encouraged others, such as Bolsonaro in Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One key difference is that Bolsonaro was tried for his crimes against Brazilian democracy, and on September 11, 2025, the Supreme Court sentenced him to 27 years in prison. Brazil thus set a precedent for democracies around the world. By contrast, in Trump\u2019s case, justice was not done. He was allowed to launch a third presidential campaign and return to power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/apr\/10\/peter-magyar-leading-polls-hungary-election-tisza-opposition\">P\u00e9ter Magyar<\/a> is sincere in his desire to restore democracy, he will have to confront major challenges, especially in balancing justice, social and economic stability, and long-term viability. History teaches us that revenge alone leads to anti-democratic or technocratic outcomes. The challenge lies in how to integrate some of the authoritarian leader\u2019s supporters into a more inclusive and egalitarian form of democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Every time an anti-democratic regime falls, the key question arises: to what extent, and for how long, will justice be served?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Latin American experiences suggest that without effective justice in the face of abuses of power, democratic transitions remain exposed to setbacks and authoritarian backsliding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":56274,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16855,16844],"tags":[17180],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-56286","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-autoritarismo-en","8":"category-democracia-en","9":"tag-ideas"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/77"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56286"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56286\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56288,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56286\/revisions\/56288"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56286"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=56286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}