{"id":56320,"date":"2026-05-05T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=56320"},"modified":"2026-05-06T12:44:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T15:44:26","slug":"energy-transition-geopolitical-tensions-wars-of-narratives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/energy-transition-geopolitical-tensions-wars-of-narratives\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Transition: Geopolitical Tensions, Wars of Narratives"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The conflict in the Middle East is entering its second month, while the war in Ukraine has already stretched beyond four years. Both conflicts have had major repercussions on energy markets and have also affected agricultural markets: rising prices, increased volatility, supply disruptions, and shortages. The crises now unfolding point to a new context in which consumption, investment, and financing decisions are increasingly shaped by geopolitics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Added to the tensions and conflicts overlapping in the military sphere are the wars of narratives surrounding the energy transition. Regardless of the skirmishes, it is evident that clean energy sources will emerge as the winners of this latest dispute. Beyond their environmental credentials, they also offer economic advantages: technological advances show that electricity generation from renewables is now the cheapest option anywhere in the world. This is compounded by the universal availability of these resources, as well as the fact that they rely on inputs whose marginal cost is effectively zero. In other words, moving forward with the transition means breaking free from fossil fuel dependence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Convened by the Netherlands and Colombia, representatives from more than fifty countries gathered in the Colombian city of Santa Marta during the final days of April to discuss the energy transition. The conference brought together one-fifth of the world\u2019s producers and more than one-third of its consumers, whose leaders understand that advancing the transition is not an ethical obligation, but rather a strategic bet on the future. And indeed, the conference comes at a moment that is as timely as it is critical. More than a month into the conflict in the Middle East, rising oil and gas prices have already cost companies and households as much as US$111.6 billion. The other side of the coin is the extraordinary profits being pocketed by oil companies, which various studies estimate at more than US$30 million per hour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict is not only driving up fuel prices, with immediate repercussions for motorists and transportation costs. It is also affecting electricity bills and fertilizer supplies. All of this is reflected in the World Bank\u2019s energy price index<\/a>, which rose 41.6% following the outbreak of the conflict, driven by Brent crude prices surpassing US$110 per barrel, while fertilizer prices have increased 26.2% since the conflict began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the conflict has not only increased prices. The military escalation has also impacted infrastructure across most countries in the region. This represents a major supply disruption, considering that more than 20% of the world\u2019s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Under such circumstances, it seems highly unlikely that prices will return to pre-conflict levels in the immediate future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict demonstrates that dependence on fossil fuels is not only economically burdensome, but also strategically risky. Although most attendees at the conference came from Europe and Latin America, some of the countries absent may ultimately be the ones moving fastest toward the transition. This conclusion emerges from observing the effects of the war on India, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and other Asian countries, as well as across Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philippines is one of the countries hardest hit by the war involving Iran, with rising diesel prices fueling inflation while also generating significant social discontent. As a fuel importer, the country\u2019s economy is highly exposed to fluctuations in oil markets and the resulting swelling import bills that affect its trade balance, as became evident in 2022. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the South China Sea had previously led the country\u2019s authorities to reject cooperation, but this stance is now being reconsidered: the war underscores the urgency of the transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet rising prices are also driving behavioral changes, at least among those with the means to replace their cars or install solar panels in their homes. Consider the approach adopted by the government of Pakistan in 2022, when it decided to promote the expansion of renewable energy. According to a recent study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), that decision enabled the country to save more than US$12 billion through the installation of solar panels in homes, farms, and factories. From the end of 2021 to December 2025, solar energy\u2019s share in electricity generation increased fivefold, reducing the use of natural gas and allowing the government to resell surplus supplies on international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Decisions to invest in renewables are not limited to Asian countries. A recent report by the Clean Air Task Force highlights the continuity of clean energy projects across the African continent, a strategy considered essential for meeting the region\u2019s growing energy demand, with promised investments exceeding US$100 billion. Notably, these funds come from a group of investors from Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report by the Bank of Spain notes that in 2024 wholesale electricity prices were 40% lower than in 2019 due to the growing importance of renewable energy in electricity generation. This helps explain the European Commission\u2019s decision to accelerate investments in renewable energy, transmission networks, and energy efficiency (COM\/2026\/116), involving the European Investment Bank with more than \u20ac75 billion, an amount expected to leverage projects worth much more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To this could be added the growing interest in electric vehicles in Europe and the United States, driven by the sharp rise in fuel prices after the conflict began. A warning sign for traditional automakers, which continue lobbying to delay environmental regulations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In specialized circles, the war involving Iran is viewed as disruptive \u2014 another \u201cCOVID moment\u201d that is reshaping how governments and businesses think about the energy problem. When considering investment in a new manufacturing plant, how should the energy issue be resolved? Should it be powered by gas, or should the bet be placed on renewables? Should investment continue in internal combustion vehicles, or shift toward electric vehicle production lines?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are increasingly aware of the risks involved in maintaining assets in oil companies, while returns from clean energy investment funds are outperforming the global average. The discussions in Santa Marta produced notable progress, including the creation of a scientific panel on energy transition. Advancing in this direction is imperative, as climate risks are escalating faster than expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts is accelerating the energy transition by exposing the costs and risks of dependence on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":213,"featured_media":56298,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17027,17149],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-56320","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-transicion-energetica-en","8":"category-guerra-en","9":"tag-debates"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56321,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56320\/revisions\/56321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56320"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=56320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}