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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nDid the polls fail?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nThe five polling firms authorized by the National Electoral Council (CNE) placed De la Espriella between 21% and 37.3% in voting intention, with a weighted average that did not exceed 33%. The actual result puts him more than ten points above his highest poll rating. Meanwhile, Cepeda, projected between 33.4% and 44.6%, finished above 40% at the ballot box, indicating that his electoral base mobilized reasonably well. This can be explained, in part, by the decline in projected support for other candidates such as Paloma Valencia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Two hypotheses help explain this outcome. The first is the \u201cshy voter\u201d effect: De la Espriella supporters who either did not disclose their preference in telephone or digital surveys, or who were not adequately measured, but who voted freely at the polls. The second is the differential mobilization effect: the social media networks that propelled De la Espriella likely activated voters who were not captured in polling samples. Fajardo (4.26%) also outperformed his projection (2.4%), drawing centrist voters away from the Historic Pact\u2014voters who, in polls, had tended to favor Cepeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Together, Valencia and Fajardo account for 2,626,537 votes that will prove decisive in the runoff contest. Valencia\u2019s Democratic Center vote has a natural affinity with De la Espriella\u2019s Defenders of the Homeland movement. The candidate and the Democratic Center have already announced their endorsement. However, her vice-presidential running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo, is still weighing the decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fajardo\u2019s electorate, more fragmented and technocratic in nature, is more evenly contested between the two finalists. Meanwhile, the votes of Claudia L\u00f3pez and Roy Barreras are expected to move toward the progressive candidate. This scenario places the Defenders of the Homeland candidate very close to the threshold needed for victory, even under low-turnout conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The map that has not changed: 2016 and 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nAs for the territorial distribution of votes, there have been no substantial changes over the past ten years. The map of the 2026 first round reproduces, with remarkable precision, the political geography left by the October 2016 peace plebiscite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De la Espriella won in 15 departments, while Cepeda prevailed in the remaining 17, plus Bogot\u00e1. Abelardo\u2019s strongest regions were Antioquia, Casanare, Santander, Norte de Santander, Boyac\u00e1, the Coffee Region, Meta, Arauca, and Cundinamarca\u2014virtually the same departments where the \u201cNo\u201d vote defeated the peace process ten years ago. Cepeda, meanwhile, prevailed on the Caribbean Coast (Atl\u00e1ntico, Bol\u00edvar, Cesar, C\u00f3rdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, and Sucre), along the Pacific Coast (Choc\u00f3, Cauca, Nari\u00f1o, and Valle del Cauca), in the Amazon region (Amazonas, Putumayo, Vaup\u00e9s, and Guain\u00eda), and in Bogot\u00e1\u2014precisely the territories where the \u201cYes\u201d vote won in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Colombia remains electorally divided along the same lines, but polarization continues to intensify with each passing day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the government\u2019s candidate?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nFor Cepeda, the path to the presidency requires several difficult conditions to be met simultaneously: maintaining his first-round base, capturing at least 45\u201350% of the votes cast for candidates such as Fajardo, and mobilizing urban abstainers and younger voters with a compelling narrative. Four years ago, Petro won the runoff with a message built around hope and the promise of change; in 2026, it is De la Espriella who is capitalizing on the anti-Petro vote. This may also signal that Colombia is beginning to move beyond the figure of \u00c1lvaro Uribe as the most influential leader of the political right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Currently, the race is extremely close, and electoral specters abound, fueling the narratives of both campaigns. A possible constituent assembly, the so-called \u201cmafioso culture,\u201d recent electoral outcomes across Latin America, and the actions of President Gustavo Petro\u2014all of these elements have contributed to an electoral agenda dominated by emotionally charged statements rather than policy proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three decisive weeks lie ahead for Colombia\u2019s future, with one certainty: the country remains deeply divided, and whoever assumes the presidency will face the challenge of governing for all Colombians. Hopefully, while respecting institutions and acquired rights.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The first round confirmed the country’s polarization and left De la Espriella with an advantage heading into a runoff in which centrist votes will be decisive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":880,"featured_media":56819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16818,16806],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":["post-56843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-elecciones-en","category-colombia-en","tag-debates"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/880"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56843"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56845,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56843\/revisions\/56845"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56843"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=56843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
As for the territorial distribution of votes, there have been no substantial changes over the past ten years. The map of the 2026 first round reproduces, with remarkable precision, the political geography left by the October 2016 peace plebiscite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De la Espriella won in 15 departments, while Cepeda prevailed in the remaining 17, plus Bogot\u00e1. Abelardo\u2019s strongest regions were Antioquia, Casanare, Santander, Norte de Santander, Boyac\u00e1, the Coffee Region, Meta, Arauca, and Cundinamarca\u2014virtually the same departments where the \u201cNo\u201d vote defeated the peace process ten years ago. Cepeda, meanwhile, prevailed on the Caribbean Coast (Atl\u00e1ntico, Bol\u00edvar, Cesar, C\u00f3rdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, and Sucre), along the Pacific Coast (Choc\u00f3, Cauca, Nari\u00f1o, and Valle del Cauca), in the Amazon region (Amazonas, Putumayo, Vaup\u00e9s, and Guain\u00eda), and in Bogot\u00e1\u2014precisely the territories where the \u201cYes\u201d vote won in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Colombia remains electorally divided along the same lines, but polarization continues to intensify with each passing day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n