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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nTwo opposing readings of the fourth transformation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nFor the first group, this period strengthened the government’s electoral legitimacy and consolidated a new political majority; for the second, by contrast, power was concentrated in the Executive and the governing party, while institutional checks and balances were significantly weakened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The former argue that broad-reaching social programs were expanded, while the latter contend that several autonomous bodies that guaranteed democratic rights were weakened or dismantled and that the Executive’s political weight increased. The former highlight sustained increases in the minimum wage and reductions in certain income-poverty indicators; the latter, by contrast, observe that political polarization and confrontation with journalists, media outlets, civil society organizations, and the social and political opposition increased. The former point to the promotion of a foreign policy centered on national sovereignty, while the latter express concern about judicial independence, the militarization of civilian functions, and the quality of democratic pluralism. The former celebrate the maintenance of macroeconomic stability and the increase in investment linked to the nearshoring phenomenon, while the latter note that high levels of violence and impunity persisted, leading to continued allegations of organized crime infiltration at different levels of government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And we could continue with other counterpoints between defenders of the Fourth Transformation and its critics. A rational analysis is therefore warranted of what has been achieved and of the effects that other political decisions have had when measured against international indicators of democratic quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The erosion of democratic checks and balances<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nMany of the indicators mentioned above show sustained deterioration in areas such as institutional independence, checks on power, and the functioning of the rule of law during these years, although the country continues to hold relatively competitive elections and maintains alternation in states and municipalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The litmus test for this dilemma will be the federal midterm elections and those that will take place in 17 of the 32 governorships in the spring of 2027. The shadow of drug trafficking looms over some of the state elections and is causing concern at the National Palace, which led President Claudia Sheinbaum to take up an opposition initiative to use a complex institutional mechanism to prevent candidates suspected of links to criminal organizations from running for office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the lack of institutional oversight in the primaries that have begun a year before the constitutional elections is striking, as those aspiring to become the state coordinators for the defense of the Fourth Transformation and sovereignty campaign. Opposition parties have pointed this out, seeing complicity on the part of National Electoral Institute (INE) officials who fail to impose controls on these practices, which seriously undermine fairness in the electoral competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In its propaganda, the governing camp emphasizes the increase in the minimum wage, the expansion of social programs, the reduction of certain monetary-poverty indicators, and the relative stability of macroeconomic variables\u2014something that is called into question when economic growth is expected to reach just 0.1% this year. To this must be added growing indebtedness, the outcome of the ongoing USMCA negotiations, and major challenges such as high levels of criminal violence, enforced disappearances, impunity rates, the politicization of prosecutors’ offices, and the ability of organized crime to exert leverage in several regions of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Are social gains sustainable?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nBeyond the successes or failures of the governments of the so-called 4T, there is a more academic debate over whether social gains can be sustained without economic growth and while eroding what remains of democratic institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, supporters of the project argue that the state regained its capacity to govern and reduced the power of traditional elites, resulting in a legitimacy derived from popular support. Critics, by contrast, contend that the weakening of checks and balances may have lasting effects regardless of which party is in government, since the concentration of power is already enshrined in the Constitution and may facilitate future abuses and criminal penetration that could limit the effectiveness of the Mexican state and further increase pressure from the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Viewed through the lens of political science, if the project is assessed exclusively in terms of its ability to build a new majority for a regime change, it has been successful, whether through conventional electoral means or through less-than-commendable deals involving members of the political opposition. However, viewed through the lens of liberal democratic quality, what is at stake is the erosion of judicial independence, institutional checks and balances, pluralism, and the rule of law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ultimately, a balanced assessment reveals a combination of political transformation and social advances alongside institutional tensions that fuel the debate over a possible ongoing process of autocratization, driven by the weakening of checks and balances, the independence of institutions, and the state’s ability to improve the economy and confront corruption and the armies of organized crime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Eight years after AMLO came to power, Mexico takes stock of the Fourth Transformation: social advances and a solid political majority versus the weakening of democratic checks and balances and the persistence of violence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":331,"featured_media":58134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17157,17142,16872,16844],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":["post-58198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-politia-en","category-autocracia-en","category-mexico-en","category-democracia-en","tag-debates"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/331"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58198"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58198\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58205,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58198\/revisions\/58205"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58198"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=58198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Many of the indicators mentioned above show sustained deterioration in areas such as institutional independence, checks on power, and the functioning of the rule of law during these years, although the country continues to hold relatively competitive elections and maintains alternation in states and municipalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The litmus test for this dilemma will be the federal midterm elections and those that will take place in 17 of the 32 governorships in the spring of 2027. The shadow of drug trafficking looms over some of the state elections and is causing concern at the National Palace, which led President Claudia Sheinbaum to take up an opposition initiative to use a complex institutional mechanism to prevent candidates suspected of links to criminal organizations from running for office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the lack of institutional oversight in the primaries that have begun a year before the constitutional elections is striking, as those aspiring to become the state coordinators for the defense of the Fourth Transformation and sovereignty campaign. Opposition parties have pointed this out, seeing complicity on the part of National Electoral Institute (INE) officials who fail to impose controls on these practices, which seriously undermine fairness in the electoral competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In its propaganda, the governing camp emphasizes the increase in the minimum wage, the expansion of social programs, the reduction of certain monetary-poverty indicators, and the relative stability of macroeconomic variables\u2014something that is called into question when economic growth is expected to reach just 0.1% this year. To this must be added growing indebtedness, the outcome of the ongoing USMCA negotiations, and major challenges such as high levels of criminal violence, enforced disappearances, impunity rates, the politicization of prosecutors’ offices, and the ability of organized crime to exert leverage in several regions of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n