{"id":60825,"date":"2026-11-11T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/?p=60825"},"modified":"2026-11-11T17:15:51","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T20:15:51","slug":"certainty-as-a-school-for-leadership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/certainty-as-a-school-for-leadership\/","title":{"rendered":"Certainty as a school for leadership"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Black swans are, by definition, unpredictable. Yet uncertainty has become the everyday landscape in which business decisions are made. Many investments will not bear fruit for years, while regulations, technologies, and even shipping routes can change within months. Long-term and short-term considerations coexist in a state of constant tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The international order is undergoing a profound realignment. The \u201cunipolar moment,\u201d as Charles Krauthammer described the period following the Cold War, has given way to strategic competition between the United States and China. Unlike the 20th century, this new bipolarity is unfolding in a deeply interdependent world, where a trade sanction, a technological veto, or a bottleneck in a maritime strait can trigger cascading effects across interconnected markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated just how profoundly a health crisis could disrupt global production chains. Geopolitical rivalry in an interconnected world is now compounded by accelerating technological change, forcing businesses to rethink their models, capabilities, and competitive advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dona.latinoamerica21.com\/?page_id=16&amp;lang=en\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"190\" src=\"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1024x190.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-50869\" style=\"width:1048px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1024x190.png 1024w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-300x56.png 300w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-768x142.png 768w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1536x284.png 1536w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-2048x379.png 2048w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-150x28.png 150w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-696x129.png 696w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1068x198.png 1068w, https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/L21-Banner-INGLES-1920x356.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>From just in time to just in case<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For decades, the corporate mantra of efficiency was <em>just in time<\/em>: minimizing inventories and producing on demand. However, growing disruptions to trade routes and suppliers\u2014caused by the pandemic, armed conflicts, tariffs, and sanctions\u2014have exposed the vulnerabilities of relying on a limited number of suppliers, routes, or markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>just in case<\/em> approach has consequently gained ground. The goal is no longer simply to optimize costs, but to build resilience: anticipate alternative scenarios, diversify suppliers, routes, and markets, maintain strategic reserves, and recognize that certain redundancies are not inefficient expenses but insurance policies for operational continuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strategic planning is therefore moving away from linear projections of a relatively predictable future and incorporating the continuous reassessment of scenarios, priorities, and capabilities. This transition calls for new forms of leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Latin American paradox: Talent for instability<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recurring crises experienced across much of Latin America, particularly in Argentina, have paradoxically served as a training ground for leadership capabilities that are now gaining new value. Working in environments shaped by inflation, regulatory unpredictability, bureaucracy, informality, and even corruption has given many executives a particular kind of training: the ability to make decisions with incomplete information and tolerate ambiguity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Argentine executives who have taken their experience to global leadership positions illustrate this dynamic particularly well. Mart\u00edn Tolcachir, global CEO of Grupo Dia, often identifies the ability to plan \u201cknowing that tomorrow we may have to start over from scratch\u201d as a distinctly Latin American strength, without allowing that possibility to paralyze organizations. Meanwhile, Felipe Fern\u00e1ndez Aramburu, who leads Uber Iberia after overseeing the platform\u2019s expansion across the Southern Cone, recommends \u201cbeing extremely consistent about what we do and very flexible about how we do it.\u201d He distinguishes between reversible decisions, which allow for experimentation and rapid change, and irreversible ones, which require greater caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this practical adaptability has a clear limit: surviving instability does not make it desirable. Constant crises toughen professionals, but they also erode capital, discourage long-term investment, and weaken institutions. The experiences shared by Florencia Davel (GSK) and other CEOs brought together through the Circle of Argentine Executives Abroad (CEAE) demonstrate the value of combining Latin American agility and creativity with the methods, discipline, and organizational rigor of international companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The next frontier<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>just in case<\/em> approach presents an additional challenge: keeping options open without compromising competitiveness. Those accustomed to reassessing scenarios and making decisions with incomplete information may be better equipped to envision alternatives and move flexibly between them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adaptation makes it possible to respond to change. Anticipation means considering how competitive advantages themselves might evolve. Artificial intelligence can automate tasks, reduce costs, and accelerate processes. But organizations should start asking themselves a further question: what will happen when these technologies become widespread across much of the industry?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personalization may be the next frontier. Tolcachir is already thinking about understanding consumption habits in individual neighborhoods and tailoring products and services to local preferences. Technology makes it possible to process the data, but the competitive advantage lies in the ability to translate that information into a value proposition tailored to each customer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aramburu takes this exercise in anticipation a step further: he suggests imagining how a company would be organized if it had to be built from scratch using today&#8217;s technological capabilities. The same question can be applied to public administrations. Introducing artificial intelligence into existing processes can improve efficiency; redesigning those processes requires rethinking the organization itself. This is where creativity comes into play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AI and talent in the loop<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As technology becomes more widely accessible, the capabilities that enable people to use it more effectively become increasingly important: business knowledge, judgment, specialization, organizational culture, and the ability to learn quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much has been said about <em>human-in-the-loop<\/em>: human intervention in the supervision and validation of automated processes. But perhaps we should also start thinking about <em>talent-in-the-loop<\/em>: professionals who do more than oversee technology, bringing creativity, experience, and the ability to envision solutions that systems cannot generate on their own. In a world where tools are increasingly accessible, creative, experienced, and ambitious talent can make all the difference, bringing a human dimension to every enterprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A future resilient to black swans<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his book <em>The Black Swan<\/em>, Nassim Taleb invites us to consider the limits of our predictions and our exposure to the unexpected. Organizations cannot predict every disruptive event, but they can design structures capable of absorbing shocks when reality changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Argentina, like other Latin American countries, has produced professionals capable of managing uncertainty across the world, yet it has struggled to provide a predictable environment at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The region&#8217;s opportunity lies in transforming these individual adaptive capabilities into collective development strategies that help sustain projects, investments, and institutions beyond economic and political cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uncertainty has taught Latin American leaders how to manage crises; the challenge is to turn that experience into sustained development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":487,"featured_media":60650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16863],"tags":[15635],"gps":[],"class_list":["post-60825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economia-en","tag-debates"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/487"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60825"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60825\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60838,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60825\/revisions\/60838"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60825"},{"taxonomy":"gps","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinoamerica21.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gps?post=60825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}