Lula could be re-elected, but the left would remain far from gaining control of power, since a Congress, governors, and a largely conservative Centrão would limit its room for maneuver.
Milei’s visit to Brazil exposed the increasing coordination between the new Latin American right-wing forces and turned Brazil’s elections into a key battleground over the region’s political direction.
U.S. tariffs on Brazil are not only reshaping bilateral trade but could also accelerate Brazil’s rapprochement with China and alter the strategic balance in Latin America.
Brazil's presidential race is now being fought in Washington as well, where Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro seek to turn foreign policy into electoral capital.