The diplomatic escalation between Ecuador and Colombia threatens to worsen the border crisis and affect thousands of citizens and traders in both countries.
Under the government of Daniel Noboa, Ecuador is undergoing a gradual transformation that concentrates power, weakens checks and balances, and reshapes democratic rules in a drift with authoritarian overtones.
In a context of profound state weaknesses, Ecuador has ceased to be a marginal actor and has instead become fully—and belatedly—integrated into the dynamics of transnational organized crime.
In a scenario where crime is organized in networks, the lack of coordination between Ecuador and Colombia only makes what is legal more costly and strengthens what is illegal.
When ideology replaces pragmatism in economic and foreign policy, confrontation takes center stage, and the costs — economic, institutional, and social — are not long in coming.
