Daniel Noboa, president of Ecuador, is desperate. He came to his country’s presidency promising an iron fist and ran headlong into the sad reality that Nayib Bukele–style populism does not work in territories as large and as awash in criminal money as Ecuador. After a humiliating defeat in the referendum he proposed and necessary checks imposed by the Court of Justice on his attempts to sidestep democratic rules, the Ecuadorian leader decided to borrow a page from Donald Trump’s political playbook and found an enemy to blame for everything: Colombia. The result is that both countries suffer.
The announcement was surprising. On his X account, he wrote that “our military continues to confront criminal groups tied to drug trafficking along the border (600 km with Colombia) without any cooperation whatsoever” and, therefore, “in the face of a lack of reciprocity and firm actions, Ecuador will apply a 30% security levy on imports from Colombia starting February 1.” In other words, retaliatory tariffs.
In the process, he not only violates international trade agreements and fractures integration between two neighboring nations that need each other, but also seeks to resemble U.S. president Donald Trump. Noboa’s goal is to project strength in Ecuador, but he might do well to look at how recent polls in the United States show that the overwhelming majority of citizens there feel that Trump’s measures have not brought them benefits.
Noboa’s frustration is understandable. After arriving at the presidency with high popularity and lofty promises, his support is now plummeting, with some polls placing it below 40%. More importantly, violence in the neighboring country has spiraled out of control. According to the Ecuadorian outlet Primicias, the homicide rate stood at 50.91 per 100,000 inhabitants, with more than 9,000 intentional killings in 2025. The strength of the various criminal groups, financed by drug trafficking, even led to the assassination of political candidates. Colombians know very well the fear felt by Ecuadorian society. That is why we also know that promising a security policy without much more behind it, as Noboa does, is far from an effective response.
Tariffs are a shot in the foot for both countries. Colombia is Ecuador’s main partner in the Andean Community: in 2024, Ecuadorians sold about USD 850 million in products to Colombia, and Colombians exported a total of USD 2.112 billion to Ecuador. Moreover, between 8% and 10% of the electricity consumed in Ecuador is imported from Colombia. The government of Gustavo Petro has already announced that it will suspend that supply if the hostility continues. Both governments could, of course, inflict economic harm on each other, but the only ones who win in such a war, paradoxically, are criminal groups.
Why make Ecuadorian products more expensive and hurt Colombian exports? Beyond political theater, the key is diplomacy. In its response, the Casa de Nariño has said the door is open to dialogue and to improving cooperation. If Noboa truly prioritizes the interests of Ecuador and the region, he should answer that call. We fear, however, that he is more concerned with counting future votes.
Fidel Cano is the director of the newspaper El Espectador. National Simón Bolívar Journalism Award. Master’s degree in Journalism with an emphasis on Newspaper Management from Northwestern University. He holds a degree in Philosophy from the University of the Andes in Bogotá.
Text originally published in El Espectador, Colombia.
Autor
Director of the newspaper El Espectador. Winner of the Simón Bolívar National Journalism Prize. Master's degree in Journalism with a focus on Newspaper Management from Northwestern University. He holds a degree in Philosophy from the University of Los Andes in Bogotá.
