Under the government of Daniel Noboa, Ecuador is undergoing a gradual transformation that concentrates power, weakens checks and balances, and reshapes democratic rules in a drift with authoritarian overtones.
In a context of profound state weaknesses, Ecuador has ceased to be a marginal actor and has instead become fully—and belatedly—integrated into the dynamics of transnational organized crime.
In a scenario where crime is organized in networks, the lack of coordination between Ecuador and Colombia only makes what is legal more costly and strengthens what is illegal.
When ideology replaces pragmatism in economic and foreign policy, confrontation takes center stage, and the costs — economic, institutional, and social — are not long in coming.
With record levels of violence, a weakened government, and an impending electoral scenario, Ecuador is heading toward 2026 amid political tensions, institutional fragility, and unmet social demands.
