After 18 months, Ecuadorians will return to the polls on February 9 to elect a presidential candidate, 151 assembly members and five Andean parliamentarians for a four-year term. In May, the transitional government of President Daniel Noboa, who was elected in a sui generis process provoked by the dissolution of the Assembly (mutual death) by his predecessor, as well as the call for early elections, will come to an end. The President has become a presidential candidate and is contesting this race against 15 opponents.
The proposals of the presidential aspirants focus on two issues: the fight against insecurity and the generation of employment. These problems have been the same concerns for the last three years. In this period, the reality has not changed and tends rather to a process of aggravation. The last three governments have applied similar formulas against insecurity: states of exception, more presence of the Armed Forces in the streets and prisons, strengthening of the National Police with more troops, weapons, and technology. No progress has been made in extradition processes or in dealing a sure blow to the finances of criminal groups, in addition to the insufficient results in the control of ports and borders through which drugs circulate.
A differentiating element of the current government in the fight against organized crime is the issuance of Decree 111, which declares internal war on criminal gangs. Despite the radicalization of the measures, Ecuador closed 2024 as one of the most violent countries in the region, due to the registration of 40 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the Ecuadorian Observatory of Organized Crime. However, this problem is not limited to this type of crime, as there is a proliferation of kidnappings, extortion, or vaccines in exchange for false security, arms and drug trafficking, and illegal mining.
In the last quarter, joint operations between the Armed Forces and the National Police have increased in places considered to be highly dangerous, such as Zone 8, on the Ecuadorian coast, which includes the cantons of Guayaquil, Durán and Samborondón. Law enforcement has captured targets considered high-value, but the results are quickly diluted as the justice system releases criminals with extensive records. There is a divorce between security policies and the performance of justice operators.
Another of the determining factors and challenges for the next government is the fight against violence in terms of prevention, containment, and eradication. Despite the efforts of different sectors, organizations and institutions that promote, defend and work for the progressiveness of the rights of vulnerable populations, from 2014 to 2023 there have been 1,698 femicides, according to the Latin American Association for Alternative Development (ALDEA).
On the other hand, between 2023 and 2024 the first and second causes of death in young people are violent deaths and suicide. And domestic violence is among the two main crimes reported to the Prosecutor’s Office. In other words, the problem is not only insecurity, but also the manifestations that systematically disfigure the social fabric.
The context of insecurity is highly complex and linked to the socioeconomic situation of the population. It connects with the second campaign promise: unemployment. Only three out of ten people have decent jobs, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). Concerning young people is along the same lines: seven out of ten are unemployed and of the 200,000 high school graduates who have graduated in the past three years, barely half can continue their studies in a higher education institution. Migration is a trigger, since the figures recorded in 2024 are equal to those of 2000, the year of the greatest banking and financial crisis.
The 16 candidates are competing for votes on social networks and in the streets. Although they all agree on the problems, the same does not happen with the solutions. In terms of security, there is a common denominator, which is the strengthening of the intelligence apparatus to eradicate criminal gangs, the prosecution of money laundering and the stiffening of penalties against certain crimes and also against justice operators who are in collusion with organized crime. In addition, the need to seek alliances with other countries and international cooperation is reiterated. The proposals lack an analysis of the financing to fight crime, which makes them weak and to some extent demagogic.
Regarding employment, there is a majority position of the candidates to revise the Labor Code, in the sense of opening the hiring to different modalities, especially for young people, to benefit with incentives to the private sector that generates new jobs from the tax perspective, and to attract foreign direct investment and national reinvestment. This set of proposals, however, does not solve the legal insecurity, the decisions regarding the labor regime in the new Assembly, the future relationship between business and government. The task is titanic for the winner of the elections as Ecuador did not manage to grow even 1% of GDP in 2024.
There is a multiple crisis that will demand a broad and long-term agreement between politicians, society, and business for the next four years, especially to combat insecurity and generate employment. Whoever wins the elections will have to demonstrate whether their campaign proposals will be enough in terms of government management, economic and political stability.
*Machine translation proofread by Janaína da Silva.
Autor
Political scientist and communicator. General Research Coordinator at the Institute of Advanced National Studies - IAEN (Quito). PhD in Social Sciences from FLACSO-Ecuador. Latest books: (2023) "Ecuador: dialogue and minimum agreements" and (2020) "In the eye of the hurricane. Communication Law in Ecuador".
