During the live debate between the candidates for mayor of São Paulo, the largest city in Latin America, on September 15, the level of brutality stayed consistent with previous ones. However, a surreal event marked the elections: José Luiz Datena, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) candidate, one of Brazil’s most traditional parties, attacked Pablo Marçal, the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party (PRTB) candidate, with a chair.
For the attentive viewer, this shocking event wasn’t entirely unexpected—sadly—given Marçal’s provocations. A few days later, on September 23, Marçal was expelled from another debate, this time following physical aggression, where one of his aides assaulted the publicist of São Paulo’s current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB).
To understand the Marçal phenomenon, we turn to Italian author Giuliano Da Empoli. In his book “Engineers of Chaos”, Da Empoli describes the factory and modus operandi that spawned figures like Pablo Marçal, who entered politics with a clear objective: to change the democratic foundations of power. It might sound like another Orwellian dystopia, but the scariest part is that these events are happening globally.
Latinos in common
Pablo Marçal’s election campaign mirrors many elements that propelled Javier Milei to Argentina’s presidency. These include anti-government, anti-political rhetoric, robust digital communication strategies, and the shamelessness of offending with brutality, without worrying about sounding ridiculous, incoherent, or alienating parts of the electorate—just to grab attention.
El Salvador offers another example: Nayib Bukele, described by Marçal as a “young guy” and a “social media president,” but also accused of human rights abuses for enforcing security policies under an emerging state of exception.
These figures share a similar playbook, with minor differences in implementation, possibly tied to generational or regional specifics. Their strategy centers on three pillars: stoking resentment and passion, exploiting digital communication—using cuts, distortions, and fact manipulations, taking advantage of legal gaps—and empty political criticism, radical but with little factual substance. In other words, these political actors use socio-economic issues, and through mass digital communication and cherry-picking facts, they create narratives that support their worldview: convenient distortions of reality. Their goal is to introduce chaos into the democratic system and seize power.
Remember, Bolsonaro paved the way in 2018, but later tried to adapt to the traditional political game and had to drop his—illegitimate—anti-system stance. This “centrist” shift in bolsonarism, seen in the timid support for Ricardo Nunes’ re-election (through Bolsonaro’s party PL), left many former followers feeling abandoned, and Marçal has seized this section of the electorate.
From myth to phenomenon
Our new engineer of chaos has been replicating proven techniques, positioning himself as the fresh challenger to Brazil’s political and electoral system. Involved in several electoral court disputes—raising rumors—he’s amassed controversy and headlines.
This visibility, based on “say bad things, but say my name,” made him more recognizable to voters, reaching 20% in the polls, putting him among the top three contenders. He also became the most followed candidate on social media.
From myth to phenomenon, we’re now witnessing a new Black Mirror-esque season during the electoral race for the mayoralty of Brazil’s economic powerhouse. Proposals? Numbers? Technical data on the city? No. Marçal speaks nonsense, delivering just the fragments that algorithms demand, often struggling with consistency. But it doesn’t matter, because the information overload diverts attention, skillfully shaping public perception.
Armed with his wealth—acquired through a highly controversial career—and digital capital, he sought to “rent” a party (the PRTB—Partido Renovador Trabalhista Brasileiro), a previously insignificant player on the national political stage, to institutionalize his venture.
Marçal’s provocative and combative style reflects the “naturally populist” character noted by Da Empoli. To set himself apart, Marçal blends arrogant superiority with “one of us” humility. On the one hand, he promotes himself as a successful businessman with multimillion-dollar assets. On the other, he symbolizes the ordinary, hardworking citizen striving for prosperity. His typical attire reflects this contrast: a suit paired with a cap sporting his logo.
The former coach taps into deep-seated societal wounds, especially among those who feel unrepresented, who distrust politics, but long for miraculous life changes while grappling with harsh realities. Through the association of his image with the symbolism of prosperity, Marçal found his strength to grow. Unsurprisingly, his support is strongest among young people from the outskirts, high school graduates, informal workers, and evangelicals—segments coveted by both the left and right.
The consequences for democracy
This chaotic figure has been committing some of the most grotesque acts without scruples, and the damage is still being calculated. Recent incidents of aggression mark the culmination of this season led by Marçal. No physical aggression should be justified, but the truth is Marçal crafted his own plot and has dictated or influenced the script more than his rivals.
Though there’s skepticism about Marçal’s rise, especially with the strong campaigns of the two main competitors—Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL, backed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)—the greatest damage has been to democracy.
We are seeing the clash between the methods of the so-called digital economy, unbound by regulations or guidelines, and traditional political practice, governed by rules that don’t account for new social and dynamic realities. It’s a double game, exploiting regulatory loopholes while taking advantage of an outdated system.
The real concern isn’t whether Marçal wins São Paulo’s mayoralty—recent polls show he’s lost momentum and stabilized in third place—but his ability to inspire followers and secure seats in the Legislature.
Perhaps underestimating his dangerous rise is a mistake. The signs aren’t promising, and they should serve as a warning. It’s a sad realization that our institutions, once again, lag behind the times. Ignoring the deep fissure that has opened in the political order may be the easiest way out, but it’s also the most problematic, likely to cause greater damage in the future.
Autor
Lawyer, research assistant and master's student in Public Policy at INSPER. Research on Latin American electoral systems, interest representation and the Brazilian political-budgetary system.
