Politics is the management of expectations — but, above all, the administration of collective emotions. The legislative elections in Argentina produced a result that, at first glance, seems paradoxical: La Libertad Avanza (LLA) achieved a resounding victory with 40.7% of the national vote, winning in 15 of 24 provinces, including the five most influential districts (Buenos Aires, CABA, Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Mendoza). Yet a social listening analysis of 15,000,500 online interactions during the week before the election revealed a social atmosphere dominated by frustration. After filtering for emotionally charged mentions, 71.4% expressed anger.
How can this contradiction be explained? The answer lies not in denying one of the data points, but in integrating them. The ruling party didn’t win by changing the public mood—it won by showing itself to be the only actor capable of representing and channeling the many facets of that anger.
The architecture of fracture: two digital electorates
The dataset analysis didn’t reveal a debate but rather two parallel universes that explain the composition of the 40.7% vote share:
The first one is The Archipelago of Conviction (19.4% “Joy”). This segment, though smaller in the overall conversation, forms the hard core of the ruling party. Its keywords (“thanks,” “strength,” “let’s go,” “freedom”) signal an identity-driven, almost epic vote. This base is not judging short-term governance performance—it’s defending a cultural project. That 19% represents the loyal “floor” that LLA has consolidated.
The second one is the Continent of Anger (71.4% dominant). Here lies the key to the election. Anger is not monolithic. The semantic analysis of this cluster reveals systemic frustration. Keywords such as “country,” “people,” and “shit” are mixed not only with criticisms of @jmilei but also with deep rejection of the traditional political forces—Macrismo and Kirchnerismo both appear prominently.
This anger represents the “voto bronca” of 2023, which remains active two years later. It reflects civic fatigue over governance outcomes, but also a lingering memory of why voters once opted for a disruptive change.
The battle for anger: how the 40.7% was built
This election was essentially a contest for ownership of that 71% of anger. Preliminary results show how it split. The opposition coalition, Fuerza Patria (around 34%), captured a significant share of this anger—especially from those critical of current management—but failed to unite it fully. It couldn’t position itself as a credible alternative for voters disillusioned with the entire political system.
Meanwhile, LLA’s victory is explained by an aggregation of forces: its 40.7% combines 19% of “joy” voters (its loyal base) and 21% of “pragmatic anger” voters.
The ruling party succeeded because it persuaded a large segment of frustrated citizens that, despite the government’s flaws, the opposition (Peronism and its allies) remained the original source of their anger. LLA reaffirmed its mandate by continuing to embody punishment against the “political caste,” even as it has become part of the establishment itself.
A conditional mandate
Despite its broad victory, this is not a blank check. It is not an endorsement of performance but rather a renewal of the mandate for rupture. The government hasn’t overcome social discontent—it has merely shown that the traditional opposition cannot channel it either.
LLA has won the narrative war by ensuring that anger toward the government’s management (“consequence vote”) remains smaller than anger toward the establishment (“protest vote”). But that 71% of frustration remains latent. The government won the election, yet the plebiscite on the national mood remains open—and that will be its true challenge heading into 2027.
*Machine translation, proofread by Ricardo Aceves.
Autor
Doctor in science and technology from the Central University of Catalonia, master's degree in Marketing from the University of San Andrés and in artificial intelligence from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia. Director and Founder of Reputación Digital, a consultancy specialized in "social listening".
