The death of Raúl Castro could alter the internal balance of power within the Cuban regime at a time marked by economic crisis and growing social discontent.
Despite its deep economic crisis, Cuba retains an international influence greater than its material weight thanks to a broad network of governments, political parties, trade unions, and social organizations that support the regime.
The Cuban regime’s deepest crisis coincides with a strategy of maximum pressure driven by Washington. The objective is to force a political transition, but the use of force no longer appears to be an implausible scenario.
Venezuela and Cuba are experimenting with a limited economic opening to preserve political control, following the model of China and Vietnam without opening the door to democratic freedoms.
Washington is once again betting on a strategy that already failed more than six decades ago: using economic sanctions to force political change in Cuba. Yet, while it seeks to isolate the regime, it also hampers reforms and pushes Havana closer to China.
