Despite its deep economic crisis, Cuba retains an international influence greater than its material weight thanks to a broad network of governments, political parties, trade unions, and social organizations that support the regime.

The Cuban regime’s deepest crisis coincides with a strategy of maximum pressure driven by Washington. The objective is to force a political transition, but the use of force no longer appears to be an implausible scenario.

Venezuela and Cuba are experimenting with a limited economic opening to preserve political control, following the model of China and Vietnam without opening the door to democratic freedoms.

Washington is once again betting on a strategy that already failed more than six decades ago: using economic sanctions to force political change in Cuba. Yet, while it seeks to isolate the regime, it also hampers reforms and pushes Havana closer to China.

The imprisonment of teenager Jonathan Muir reveals how the Cuban regime has turned dissenting youth into one of its primary targets of repression.

Dialogue between the countries reflects an asymmetric and limited negotiation, in which external pressure seeks structural change while the regime prioritizes its survival.