On Wednesday, July 24, Andrés Manuel López Obrador revealed the contents of a letter he sent to Donald Trump in his capacity as the Republican candidate for the presidency of the United States. 

A letter from a sitting president to a presidential candidate is unusual, as it can be interpreted as a tacit endorsement of the recipient. Politically it is inopportune, discourteous towards Kamala Harris, the upcoming Democratic Party presidential candidate, and also towards her potential voters.

However, the most significant aspect is what it represents for Claudia Sheinbaum, the virtual president who will take the reins of Mexico on October 1, and its content, which questions the country’s sovereignty.

This letter follows Trump’s statements on international migration, security, and organized crime. This triad is explosive in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship because, for Trump, they come as a package with a cost to Mexico under the so-called third country policy. This policy essentially means that if Mexico does not act as a guard for Caribbean, Central American, and South American migrants, there would be tariffs imposed on Mexican products.

Thus, López Obrador addressing Trump in the letter as if he were already president is a major diplomatic blunder, unprecedented between the two nations, which limits the political space of his successor. It also confirms the suspicion that AMLO will continue seeking to influence decisions in the next administration.

The well-known letter states: “I want to address two issues you raised at the recent Republican Party convention. The first is your opinion that migrants are ‘invaders and criminals’ and that, if elected, you would close the border within the first days of your administration. I understand that you are in campaign mode and are not as some think, obstinate, which is why I consider it important to point out that the economic relationship between our nations is so intense and widespread that taking such a measure, closing the border, would be akin to calling for a rebellion on both sides of the border due to the damage it would cause to the people, industry, and commerce. This undesirable scenario would manifest with particular severity in the United States, especially in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, which, together with the six Mexican border states, represent the world’s fourth-largest economy.”

“I add that such a decision would prevent the crossing of customs and border bridges by 1 million people and 300,000 vehicles, of which 70,000 transport goods between our countries daily, moving in both directions across the dividing line. I believe that the most effective and humane approach is to understand the causes of migration, to help create jobs and better living conditions in people’s places of origin, and instead of adopting unilateral measures, it is preferable to opt for dialogue, cooperation, and agreement.”

And in the wake of Elon Musk’s retreat from constructing the Tesla plant in Nuevo León, opting to wait for the outcome of the November U.S. presidential election, López Obrador told the Republican “friend”: “It is neither advisable nor convenient, dear friend President Trump, to manufacture all the cars and auto parts consumed in your country within your borders. It is unquestionable that the United States has unparalleled historical experience worldwide and possesses technology and capital; however, your production costs are very high, a situation that has been addressed by creating automotive and auto parts plants in our country, benefiting both investors and companies, as well as American workers and consumers.”

He continued: “One example is enough: a car imported from Mexico saves an American buyer between $10,000 and $15,000. I also beg you to consider the following data: 37.7 million Mexicans live in the United States, seven out of ten agricultural workers are of Mexican origin. Last year, Mexicans contributed $325 billion to your country’s economy and generously sent $63 billion to their families in Mexico, meaning they send 18.5% and leave 81.5% of their total income in the United States.”

No less important is the issue of the fight against drug cartels. When asked by Fox News if the threat to bomb Mexican cartels was still on the table, Trump’s response was: “Mexico is going to have to be tougher on that, or the response will be absolute.”

In short, Trump’s campaign exalts AMLO’s prominence, which once again compromises Claudia Sheinbaum on an issue that, as Elon Musk rightly points out, calls for caution: we must first wait for the end of the U.S. presidential campaign and for its citizens to express whether they want to be governed by Donald Trump.

_{*Translated by Ricardo Aceves from the original in Spanish.}