Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks the beginning of a new phase of confrontation that places Mexico and Latin America at the epicenter of a geopolitical game that favors isolation and hostility. His first actions, far from constituting coherent foreign policy strategies, appear designed to satisfy his electoral base, sacrificing strategic relationships and undermining regional stability.

From day one, Trump has reactivated strict immigration policies, including the deployment of 4,000 troops to the southern border and the reinstatement of the ‘remain in Mexico‘ program. This policy, which affected more than 70,000 migrants between 2019 and 2021, forces asylum seekers to wait in precarious conditions in Mexico, often under threat from organized crime. These policies not only dehumanize migrants, but also generate significant social and economic costs for Mexico, which already faces strains on its assistance and security systems.

A particularly alarming measure is the designation of Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. This measure could facilitate unilateral U.S. military incursions into Mexican territory, thus violating the country’s sovereignty, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself has questioned that possibility, according to the legal scope of the executive action. Although cartels generate revenues of approximately $60 billion a year, according to the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection, confronting them requires bilateral cooperation and not unilateral measures that only strain relations between the two nations. 

On the economic front, Trump is threatening to renegotiate the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) and impose tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian products. In 2024 Mexico exported goods of more than 460 billion dollars to the United States, representing 80% of its total exports. Key sectors such as automotive and agri-food depend heavily on the U.S. market, and these trade barriers would harm Mexico and U.S. consumers and businesses by increasing costs and reducing competitiveness in an increasingly challenging global environment.

Trump’s disdain for Latin America is not limited to economics. His statements, such as “the United States does not need Latin America,” reveal an imperialist perspective that ignores global interdependencies. Latin America accounts for 20% of total U.S. imports and is a key market for U.S. machinery and technology. Reducing the region to a minor problem perpetuates a narrative of historical inequality and hinders cooperation on critical issues such as climate change, energy security and migration crisis management.

Trump’s stance on the Paris Treaty is also cause for concern. During his first term he withdrew the United States from the climate agreement, and made it clear that he would do so again if he were to reach a second term. This would have serious repercussions for global efforts against climate change, especially in Latin America, one of the regions most vulnerable to global warming. Countries such as Mexico face extreme droughts, while Brazil suffers accelerated deforestation of the Amazon. Without U.S. financial and technological support, the region would be less able to mitigate natural disasters and adapt to climate effects.

On the social front, Trump has revived his rhetoric against gender rights and sexual diversity. During his previous term he implemented restrictions on medical treatment for transgender people, eliminated labor protections for the LGBTQ+ community, and limited gender inclusive education. While these measures directly affect the United States, their polarizing influence resonates in Latin America, where progressive human rights movements have gained ground. The exclusion promoted by Trump slows these advances and fuels conservative discourses that hinder social integration in the region.

Trump’s impact on Latin America not only represents a challenge for the region, but also implies a setback for the United States in its global position. In an increasingly multipolar world, where powers such as China and the European Union seek to expand their influence, isolating themselves from their closest neighbors is a counterproductive strategy. In 2023, China surpassed the United States as the main trading partner of countries such as Brazil and Chile, proving that Latin America is already exploring economic alternatives. U.S. isolationism not only generates diplomatic tensions, but also limits opportunities for collaboration on crucial issues affecting both the region and the world.

In the face of these measures, Latin America faces the challenge of responding with unity and strategy. Mexico, as the immediate neighbor of the United States and the main recipient of its migration and economic policies, has the responsibility to lead a regional response that defends sovereignty and promotes international cooperation. It is time to strengthen internal alliances and diversify commercial and political partners to reduce dependence on the United States. This will not only be essential to counter Trump’s policies but also to build a more autonomous position on the global stage.

Trump’s return to the presidency must serve as a wake-up call for Latin America. The region cannot afford to be the scapegoat of an administration seeking to consolidate power through isolation and confrontation. Instead, it must act as a united bloc capable of facing challenges and demonstrating its ability to dialogue, negotiate, and build a future that benefits all its inhabitants. Latin America has the potential to be a key player in the 21st century, and this is the time to prove it. The divisive policies pushed by Trump may attempt to build walls, but they cannot stop a region that seeks to move forward with dignity and purpose.

_{*Machine translation proofread by Janaína da Silva.}