Skepticism in some and hope in others has characterized the arrival to power of the American president in Washington in its version 2.0. The electoral discourse based on the “Make America Great Again” movement aroused all kinds of feelings, not only among his followers and opponents at the domestic level but also among the different members of the international community. The fear generated by the massive deportation of illegal immigrants from its territory, the diplomatic distancing with regional allies and the hardening of trade policy in favor of the West, are some of the campaign promises that have shaken the foundations of mutual understanding with its neighbors.
Given the recent declarations of the president-elect, he plans to promote a package of 100 measures from the beginning of his administration, highlighting the border policy with Mexico, the issue of constitutional order in Venezuela and the renegotiation of existing trade agreements. This discourse has not been well received among Latin American and Caribbean leaders who are beginning to consider new possibilities in international relations.
Thus, while Trump’s rhetoric shows signs of isolationism, Beijing is analyzing the likelihood of exerting a greater presence in the American continent by increasing trade and investment flows and respecting the internal affairs of the States.
Trade relations between Latin America and China
Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the Asian giant has enjoyed an unprecedented rise in global value chains. Over the last two decades, its active participation in external sales led it to become the world’s largest exporter, reaching an estimated $3,511 trillion in 2023. Imports amounted to $3.125 trillion, with a surplus of $386 billion. Of this figure, Latin America and the Caribbean contributed $0.244 billion of flows to China and $0.245 billion from China.
Brazil, Chile and Peru have strengthened bilateral exchanges among the eastern nation’s suppliers in recent years. Soybean, oil, copper, and zinc are some of the products that make up the exported basket and that have consolidated Beijing as its main trading partner. However, Argentina, Mexico, Colombia and some island states such as the Dominican Republic, Cuba and Haiti have also boosted trade ties with this country, taking advantage of the potential of accessing a market with more than 1.4 billion inhabitants.
In terms of investment, the Belt and Road Initiative, launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, is an ambitious strategy to strengthen China’s presence abroad, and Latin America and the Caribbean is no exception. The initiative includes the development of maritime, air, land and rail infrastructure works, located at strategic points on the five continents to facilitate the international physical distribution of goods, in addition to digital connectivity and information transfer.
In a period characterized by the moderation of economic growth and protectionist flashes at the global level, becoming recipients of foreign capital for the execution of large-scale projects is a bet that arouses the interest of local leaders and strengthens China’s quest for leadership in the region.
Washington and Beijing with regard to Latin America
In terms of foreign policy, Latin America and the Caribbean was an unfinished business for the first Trump administration beyond the discourse. Despite considering the domestic situation in Venezuela, the renegotiation of the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico (NAFTA), migration and drug trafficking in its agenda, the absence of constructive dialogue and a greater presence to address common problems affecting the region was noticeable. For example, economic sanctions and pressure tactics on the Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan regimes, influenced the distancing of some Latin American governments from Washington and polarized the political discussion among their leaders.
The return of the U.S. president to the White House poses a series of challenges that, given recent campaign promises, tend to maintain the hard line on the treatment of its neighbors. Likewise, the ideals contained in the “Make America Great Again” movement are aimed at reducing cooperation with its former allies, seeking short-term gains and prioritizing domestic discussions harming international ones. In this way, the isolationist policy of the first four-year period, which reflected a minimal interest in Latin American affairs in comparison with other latitudes, could be continued.
In line with the above, a lesser US leadership in the region could be taken advantage of by Beijing, which seeks to strengthen diplomatic ties with new partners in the American continent to consolidate its geopolitical position contained in the Belt and Road Initiative. The Free Trade Agreements signed with Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Peru, in addition to the strategic alliances in trade and investment with a significant number of states are an example of this.
*Machine translation proofread by Janaína da Silva.
Autor
Master in International Affairs from the Universidad Externado de Colombia. Consultant and researcher on foreign policy and international relations. Member of the Colombian International Relations Network Corporation REDINTERCOL.
