Charisma and personalist leadership are common aspects of contemporary politics. However, both share a characteristic: they are potentially unstable. Initially, they serve as a “shortcut” for people when forming political preferences. Citizens do not need to be highly informed or aligned with a specific political movement to hold an opinion about different political options; they only need to form an “image” of the leaders. For example, in Argentina, it is common to hear “I am a Mileist,” “I am a Macrist,” or “I am a Cristinist” (as well as their negative forms: “I am not…”). Each of these figures has successfully leveraged their distinct qualities to project charisma.
Thus, a personalist and charismatic leader not only dominates their political space unquestionably but also appears to possess a certain trait that, in the eyes of their followers, sets them apart and makes them politically attractive. The problem is that the rapid popularity gained in this manner can also be lost just as quickly. This typically happens when the leader ultimately fails to deliver on their promises. When this occurs, leadership wanes, charisma diminishes, and opposition grows. All of this can happen very quickly.
The rapid rise of a leader
Javier Milei is not just a charismatic leader; he heads a personalist movement built around his image (La Libertad Avanza). With an outspoken personality, he first emerged in the media before launching his political career as an “outsider” in 2021. Two years later, he became Argentina’s president. And he did so “without a party.” He won based on what he represented: something different from the crisis-ridden status quo. As many described it, his election was a leap into the unknown.
Milei secured the presidency in a context favorable for a leader like him to triumph. An economic crisis, coupled with widespread dissatisfaction with the “caste” and the subsequent electoral retreat of traditional political forces, created the perfect conditions for an “outsider” to gain electoral traction. Milei capitalized on this situation and won.
His disruptive personality, his distance from the “establishment,” and his promise to resolve economic problems (he frequently presents himself as a specialist in economic growth with or without money) made him a novelty for an electorate largely seeking something new. For many, this “difference” was the reason for their vote—which leads to the next point.
The different types of Milei voters
Milei’s popularity and victory stemmed from multiple factors: public anger, the desire for something different, and genuine support for libertarian ideas he has championed. Additionally, the anti-Peronist vote played a significant role, particularly in the 2023 runoff.
These factors correlate with different groups of voters. The key takeaway is that Milei’s core base (i.e., the stable voters who will not defect in the face of failure) is only guaranteed among those who truly share his ideology—those who say on social media, “This is exactly what I voted for.”
What does this mean? If we accept this distribution of Milei’s electorate, we can conclude that a significant portion of his voter base is volatile. This implies that, aside from his hardline supporters, the rest could easily stop backing him in the future.
The potential implications for Milei’s (fragile?) popularity
According to data from Directorio Legislativo, Javier Milei’s approval rating has remained relatively stable in Argentina, making him one of the most popular presidents in Latin America.
Several factors have contributed to this continuity, but two stand out: economic and political. The first relates to inflation trends. In 2024, inflation has gradually declined, a fact the government has consistently touted as a major achievement. Politically, the absence of competitive alternatives in a fragmented opposition has also played a role. At present, there is no clear “challenger” capable of competing on equal footing with Milei. As we have seen, he remains very popular, likely bolstered by the declining inflation rate.
The combination of economic results and the lack of strong opposition helps sustain Milei’s charismatic and personalist leadership. This is the current snapshot. However, the situation resembles a house of cards: stable today, but fragile tomorrow. If one card falls (the economy), it could bring down others (such as Milei’s popularity and the opposition’s lack of competitiveness).
What would happen if inflation surged again? What if public concerns shifted away from inflation and toward broader macroeconomic issues like consumption in a context of austerity and budget constraints? These are just illustrative examples of economic shocks that could challenge the president’s current popularity. And this could happen swiftly because his support largely stems from a discontented citizenry—which could just as easily turn that frustration against Milei if he fails to meet their expectations.
Image politics and volatility
Milei’s case illustrates several facets of contemporary global politics. He embodies a personalist, charismatic, and populist leadership style that emerges from a crisis context.
These elements add to the long-standing trend of politics built on abstract images. What was once crafted through television is now also shaped by social media.
But images are volatile: today, people may like what they see; tomorrow, they may not. Milei, like other world leaders who rely on charisma and personalism, faces this dilemma. His popularity hinges on success and its continuity. In Argentina, that means economic recovery and long-term stability. Contemporary politics does not tolerate setbacks. Any misstep can quickly lead to unpopularity and open a window of opportunity for the opposition.
*Machine translation, proofread by Ricardo Aceves.
Autor
Political scientist, professor and researcher at the University of Buenos Aires, Argentina. PhD in Social Sciences (UBA) and Master in Public Policy (UTDT).
