On June 2nd, constitutional elections were held in Mexico to elect the President of the Republic and members of Congress, as well as nearly a dozen state governments, local legislatures, and thousands of mayors.

The socio-territorial studies of the vote conducted by Willibald Sonnleitner at the Colegio de México revealed that while the majority of voters supported the ruling coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia (Let’s Keep on Making History) this support was not unanimous. The coalition secured 56% of the vote compared to the 44% garnered by the opposition PRI-PAN-PRD, organized under the coalition Force and Heart for Mexico, along with the Citizen Movement party, which ran independently.

Since then, five crucial moments have occurred that justify the title of this article.

The day after the election

Without final results from the National Electoral Institute (INE), Luisa María Alcalde, Secretary of the Interior, unexpectedly called a press conference. She announced how Congress would be composed under the mixed system of first-past-the-post and proportional representation, stating that the ruling coalition “Let’s Continue Making History” had obtained a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies, according to a non-literal, systematic, and functional interpretation of Article 54 of the Constitution, and was three votes short of the same majority in the Senate.

INE’s approval

Seven of the eleven electoral councilors at the INE voted in line with what the Secretary of the Interior had announced. The opposition contested this decision before the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF), where four of the five electoral magistrates reaffirmed what the majority of electoral councilors had agreed upon. The magistrates immediately dismissed the opposition’s appeals against the ruling coalition’s overrepresentation.

Constitutional reforms

With this definitive ruling, the Chamber of Deputies was installed with 364 ruling party legislators and 136 from the opposition. At that moment, the approval process began for the 20 constitutional reforms proposed by President López Obrador, notably the judicial reform. This reform aims to replace the meritocratic system with the direct popular election of judges, magistrates, and justices, sparking a national strike and massive protests across the country by judicial employees and officials, students, academics, and civil society segments organized in the “Pink Wave” and the National Civic Front.

International backlash

These actions have also provoked negative reactions from the U.S. government and major international media due to the damage they could pose to the rules of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The UN has also expressed concerns about the implications for democratic institutions and the risks of establishing a dictatorial system.

This has had a triple negative effect politically, economically, and legally, leading to a 15% devaluation of the peso since election day.
Nevertheless, the work on judicial reform continued, and it is now constitutional law. The necessary votes in the Senate were secured from two PRD senators and one PAN senator through pressure and threats, without needing to negotiate with the opposition.

Sheinbaum’s alignment

Claudia Sheinbaum, the president-elect set to take office on October 1st, is aligned with the position of Morena’s Jacobins and its allies, led by President López Obrador. At no point has she deviated from the script against the judiciary, especially against eight of the eleven justices of the Supreme Court of Justice, who have unwaveringly defended the Constitution.

In conclusion, key institutions of the democratic transition are under threat, endangering the foundations that have supported a long period of social, economic, and political stability. This could lead to a regime change, or worse, a return to the hegemonic PRI party system without opposition that prevailed for much of the 20th century.