The new political map of diplomatic relations between the United States and Latin America reveals a paradigm shift unseen since the harshest years of the Cold War. The current scenario, marked by stark polarization, describes a region that has ceased to be a geographical bloc and has become a chessboard where Washington has decided to move its pieces with renewed speed and pragmatism.
The relationship between Latin America and the United States is key to understanding recent realignments. Under the current administration of Donald Trump, foreign policy toward the continent is no longer measured in terms of multilateral cooperation, but rather in terms of control of strategic resources, border security, and ideological loyalties.
The Southern Axis: Argentina
The most disruptive finding of this analysis is the consolidation of Argentina as the United States’ main proxy in the region. With $20 billion in financial support and complete alignment between the presidents, the South American country has gone from ambivalence to becoming the White House’s ideological aircraft carrier in the Southern Cone.
This relationship is not merely symbolic; it is a strategic move aimed at shifting traditional power centers (Mexico and Brazil) and establishing a counterweight to Chinese influence in the South Atlantic. It also finds strategic support in the alignment of the Paraguayan government, the only Latin American country invited to the Summit for Peace in the Middle East, a highly significant forum for US foreign policy.
Bolivia finds itself in a similar situation, which, after the arrival of the new right-wing president, prioritizes a rapprochement with the United States, contrary to the historical partnership of the Movement for Socialism with regimes such as those of Venezuela or Cuba.
The case of Peru deserves special mention. The push to designate it as a Major Non-NATO Ally elevates the Andean nation to a higher level of military and technological partnership, similar to that enjoyed by powers outside Europe. This, coupled with Ecuador’s alignment on security issues and the presence of foreign troops, suggests the creation of a new security corridor in the Pacific, led by Washington.
Large economies
In contrast, the regional giant, Brazil, key to the strategy of reducing regional dependence on China, finds itself in a position of rivalry. Although sanctions against the Supreme Court justices for the impeachment proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro have been lifted and tariff relief for critical minerals is being negotiated, the relationship is marked by mistrust. The White House understands that it cannot ignore Brazil in the framework of the relationship between Latin America and the United States. Therefore, it has decided to treat it as a difficult trade competitor rather than a natural partner.
According to the New Security Strategy 2025, the United States views Mexico as a partner under pressure, not an enemy nor a model ally. Mexico is central to territorial defense, the fight against cartels, migration control, and regional governance, but greater cooperation, concrete results, and shared responsibility are demanded. Exchanges with President Claudia Sheinbaum have demonstrated this in 2025. Mexico’s influence allows it to establish rivalries over strategic resources. Amid these pressures, they have managed, for the moment, to maintain a peaceful coexistence.
Venezuela and Colombia
The most dramatic scenario is unfolding in the Caribbean. The capture of Nicolás Maduro and the pressure exerted on the Venezuelan regime mark a historic turning point. The Trump administration has not only taken control of the flow of oil trade but also exerts direct oversight of the actions of the interim government, aiming to dismantle Chavismo. This move sends an unequivocal message to the rest of the continent: sovereignty has limits when red lines are crossed.
Colombia, historically the most consistent US ally in South America, was decertified due to its meager results in the war on drugs. Furthermore, tensions escalated after President Gustavo Petro’s speech in the streets of New York urging US troops not to participate in the Gaza conflict. This radical shift left the Colombian government in a highly vulnerable position, as it attempted to repair a relationship that seemed irreconcilable. However, Petro’s recent visit to Washington helped ease tensions.
A firm hand in the Caribbean
The category of enmity is filled by Cuba and Nicaragua, autocratic socialist regimes that are rejected by the Trump administration, especially in the case of Havana, where the impact of pressure on Venezuela causes significant effects.
In the Dominican Republic, the White House finds a strategic partner. It maintains a close, deeply cooperative relationship that shares the strategy of containing Haiti, where the United States has a relationship marked by the crisis of state collapse and the conditioning of receiving humanitarian assistance on cooperation in the fight against crime. Finally, Jamaica is a relevant strategic ally in the face of rising crime in the region.
Central America: strategic filter
For the White House, Central America is now a migration filter and a wall against Chinese influence.
Guatemala, despite being under a left-wing government, has emerged as a key player due to its firm pro-Taiwan and pro-Israel stance. Meanwhile, El Salvador is the ally and ideological ambassador in the region, operating under a transactional security model: political support in exchange for the detention of deportees and security cooperation. Along these lines, it is widely assumed that the change of government in Honduras (with the recent arrival of Nasri Asfura, who was explicitly supported by Trump) will align with this approach.
Panama, after overcoming tensions over control of the Canal in early 2025, rejoined the bloc of strategic allies. This ensured that the interoceanic waterway would remain under oversight favorable to US interests. Costa Rica, for its part, maintains its status as a pragmatic ally.
As for Belize, in October 2025 it signed the Safe Third Country Agreement with the United States, allowing some asylum seekers arriving in the U.S. to be transferred to Belize to process their claims.
The pragmatism of the left
The neutral stance maintained by countries like Chile and Uruguay, or strategic alliances like Suriname and Guyana, is noteworthy. These four countries have left-leaning governments. In these cases, the Trump administration seems to have opted for a laissez-faire approach, allowing relations to flow through strictly commercial channels, as long as they don’t become obstacles to the US security agenda. Chile, despite tariff tensions, has managed to maintain a pragmatic dialogue that protects its exports. Uruguay, which has aligned itself with Brazil on major global issues, has navigated a pragmatic relationship with the United States, aiming to avoid excessively straining its ties.
In the case of Suriname, a country with oil and gas potential, the U.S. Southern Command maintains frequent visits to strengthen military cooperation under the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative against drug trafficking and to counter Chinese influence. Guyana, for its part, is a critical strategic partner whose importance lies in its capacity to supply energy and its key geographic position in the face of regional tensions such as the crisis with Venezuela.
Conclusion
This new map paints a picture of a fragmented Latin America. The United States’ strategy has shifted from handshake diplomacy to conditionality diplomacy. This is explicitly enshrined in the New Security Strategy 2025, which redefines US foreign policy and places the neighborhood at the top priority with a hard-power approach, containing external actors (especially China), controlling migration, combating cartels, and strengthening allies.
Those who align themselves receive financing and improvements in their military and trade status. Conversely, those who dissent face sanctions, decertifications, or, in the exceptional case of the Venezuelan regime, direct intervention. In this new regional order, neutrality is a rarity, and alignment becomes the currency of exchange for economic stability. Latin America has once again become the main stage for a U.S. national security doctrine that admits no gray areas.
*Text originally published on Diálogo Político.
Autor
Journalist. Doctor in Political Science from the University of the Republic (Uruguay). Project coordinator in the Regional Program Political Parties and Democracy in Latin America of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Coordinator of the Political Dialogue platform.
