There are always at least two ways of looking at things. We can speak of Latin American democracy under threat or of its counterpart, “resilient” democracy. Although all democracy indexes paint a scenario of multiple deterioration, we also have reasons to resist the ubiquitous pessimism that seems to be settling in everywhere.  The fact is that, in spite of all the attacks, Latin American (imperfect) democracies are resisting.

The agonizing inauguration of President Bernardo Arévalo of Guatemala is a case in point. After months of attempts to sabotage the inauguration of the president-elect, legislators complicit with the corrupt powers waged their last battle by questioning the credentials of the new members of the legislature, thus delaying the election of the new board of directors in order to prevent legislators from being present to take the oath of office.

A new stage of the struggle to save institutions, clean up the justice system, stop impunity, enforce popular sovereignty and legislate in the general interest is now beginning in Guatemala. These efforts are being repeated throughout the region. Sometimes against the forces of corruption, other times against the coup perpetrators.  In 2023, we saw how the bolsonaristas attacked the branches of government. Today there are 1,400 accused and more than 30 coup perpetrators condemned by the Supreme Court of Justice. A legislative commission of inquiry concluded that Bolsonaro was the instigator of the insurrection.

The events surrounding the constitutional reform in Chile can be seen as a display of political incapacity, no doubt, but it is also true that the country went through two very tumultuous processes without violating the rules of the game. The first maximalist constituent essay without any dose of political realism was rejected and the second essay, kidnapped by the fundamentalist right, was also rejected. The country was left with the “Pinochet Constitution” and its multiple amendments until further notice. It can be said that Chilean political society agreed that there was no agreement, but it did so within the rules and without violence. In that sense, the process cannot but be interpreted as a sign of maturity.

Something similar happened in Ecuador. The political crisis that affected the government of Guillermo Lasso also found its institutional solution. The so-called “cross death” was implemented, which consists of the Executive dissolving the Congress and calling for general elections within six months, as stipulated in the 2008 Constitution. This was done, Lasso did not seek reelection and at the end of the process a new congress was formed and Daniel Noboa was elected president. Again, Ecuador suffered a turbulent period, but the dilemma was resolved within the rules of the game.

At present, Daniel Noboa is dealing with the biggest crisis that Ecuador has faced in decades, and, once again, the foreseen mechanisms begin to operate in the State of Emergency. It is not ideal and far from it, but the State has not collapsed. Previously, Bolivia had also gone through a serious political-electoral crisis and managed to recover institutionality, with impeccable work on the part of the electoral justice system that facilitated the formation of the legitimate government of President Luis Arce.

The 2023-2024 electoral cycle

The Latin American electoral cycle has also followed its course. In 2023, elections in Costa Rica, Honduras, and Paraguay were held without major difficulties and in Argentina, despite the deep economic crisis and political polarization, citizens went through the so-called PASO, the first round and the second ballot, all in absolute order. It is also important to rescue the response capacity of society and the opposition to the Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) and the “omnibus” law implemented and proposed by President Milei. They both contain the reversion of rights and the concentration of power in the Executive.

In Colombia, departmental and municipal elections were also well conducted, leaving a critical message to the government of Gustavo Petro.

Democracy and its institutions are maintained, but not only as a reality, but also as a volition. In the case of Venezuela, a crack has been opened for a transition to democracy. The internal elections of the opposition gave significant support to the candidate Marina Corina Machado, thus appeasing the ever present internal division of the non-Chavista groups and leaderships in Venezuela.

On the other hand, the Maduro government seems to be taking one step forward and two steps back in terms of the commitment to carry out free, direct and fair elections in 2024. There is a seed of hope and a will for change bubbling there.

Central America, the main challenge for democracy

Where democratic will seems to find no fertile ground is in Nicaragua. The small country is falling precipitously into an almost psychotic dictatorial spiral. In fact, we could say that where democratic resilience finds its deepest challenges is in Central America. Among these challenges, the most complex of all is the process in El Salvador. This may be the most dangerous precedent, because of the popularity of the drastic action without due process against gangs introduced by President Bukele, but which sweeps away the rights of tens of thousands of young people from the lower classes. This post-modern leader is headed for re-election according to all polls.

Finally, we have countries with stable democracies such as Panama and Uruguay, which will hold elections in May and October of this year, respectively. Panama has the peculiarity of being a country where the environmental issue has grown enough to influence the elections. However, much of the attention will be focused on the region’s second-largest economy and most populous Spanish-speaking nation, Mexico.

The very personal Andrés Manuel López Obrador is betting, in a competitive election, on the continuity of MORENA with Claudia Sheinbaum, against the candidate of an apparently not-so-compact coalition of PAN, PRD and PRI, Xochitl Gálvez. A lot has been criticized about the decrease in the budget and functions of the Federal Electoral Commission, but the competitive element still remains and alternation is a possibility.

Finally, Cuba continues on its increasingly isolated and impoverished path, partly because of the blockade, but also because of the closing of the doors of the transition to a regime of respect for public liberties, pluralism, and democracy.

Latin America is the region where the strength of democracy has been hit the hardest according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy index, but it is still more democratic than Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The democratic paradigm was installed here with greater aplomb than in other regions during the so-called third wave, but it is currently suffering from corruption, drug trafficking, the ultra-right and authoritarian left, inequality and discrimination, as well as the lack of equitable economic growth.

The president of Guatemala, Bernardo Arévalo, has demonstrated that with perseverance, transparency, clarity of purpose and the support of the people, it is possible to move forward. That is the way ahead.

_{*Translated by Micaela Machado Rodrigues from the original in Spanish.}