A year ago, Joe Biden was President of the United States and faced high levels of disapproval from most of the society. With only 38% approval among voters, his disastrous performance in the June presidential debate was a turning point for the Democratic Party, which forced his withdrawal in the middle of the presidential campaign.
Kamala Harris launched her presidential bid with the President’s support just a month after taking over the campaign leadership, becoming the candidate with the least amount of time in U.S. history to win over the electorate — just over one hundred days of campaigning. Various analysts noted that the abrupt nature of the decision, which positioned her almost as a second choice or emergency replacement, made it reasonable to assume she had little real chance of winning against the enormous challenges ahead.
Today, reflecting on her defeat, one might consider that this scenario could have been avoided. For three years, journalists and analysts had warned about Joe Biden’s advanced age and low approval ratings. Had the party and Biden himself heeded those warnings, the American left might have organized a stronger primary, possibly preventing Donald Trump’s return.
Currently, Brazil is facing a political scenario with important parallels to the 2024 U.S. elections — marked by falling popularity and the figure of a widely recognized leader: Lula. With over 40 years of political career, Lula has left a significant legacy, especially through policies like the Bolsa Família program, with lasting impacts in areas such as social assistance, health, education, and housing. His return to the presidency, after having been imprisoned and following his party’s defeat in 2018, reinforces his standing as the country’s main political and electoral figure today.
Before the official start of the 2026 presidential campaigns, it is crucial that the Brazilian left pays close attention to both the national political context and international trends, as well as the new demands of the electorate. This is a strategic moment to build critical mass and draw lessons from the recent defeats of the left in countries like the United States, Argentina, and Italy. Lula’s candidacy in 2026 will face different challenges from those in his past victories, demanding new strategies and a more nuanced reading of the political landscape. It is likely that the current president — who won the 2022 election by just two percentage points in the most tightly contested race in Brazil’s democratic history — will face his greatest vulnerability yet in 2026, potentially leading to a defeat not seen so far this century.
According to data from PoderData, in March Lula’s disapproval rating reached 53%, and 44% of voters believe his administration is worse than Bolsonaro’s. Trust in the president has also declined, with nearly 60% of voters saying they do not trust him. Moreover, voters disapprove of the government’s performance in all areas of federal administration. Particularly, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the handling of inflation: only 17% rate the economy as good or very good, while 23% consider it average. These numbers are very similar to Biden’s economic approval levels a year before the U.S. elections.
On the other hand, Lula’s government has promised that inflation will drop before the end of the year. However, it is necessary to consider whether this official expectation will translate into a positive perception among the population. Undoubtedly, the right will exploit this issue throughout the campaign, as it will also exploit the spread of disinformation — such as the alleged creation of a tax on the Pix money transfer system.
In fact, the right systematically uses fake news as a political weapon to advance its agenda, even concerning the president’s health. The Minister of Institutional Relations, Worker’s Party President, and Federal Deputy Gleisi Hoffmann recently argued that “the biggest fake news of all time” is one of the main reasons behind the government’s declining popularity. There are no signs that this wave of disinformation will subside in the coming year; on the contrary, it intensified notably during the U.S. elections. Therefore, even if President Lula’s health remains excellent, this will be one of the open fronts to be exploited in the campaign.
The moment to prevent all of these vulnerabilities from culminating in an electoral defeat has already begun. If Biden’s loss is taken as an example, one choice would be to select an alternative figure in time and support political renewal from the outset of the electoral process. Debating the renewal of the left is crucial to confronting the far right. It’s a lesson that the recent defeats of the international left can teach Brazil. The Brazilian people — and particularly the democratic coalition that supports Lula’s political agenda — deserve to participate actively in deciding who can carry that project forward into a new presidential term.
Despite not yet having a clear successor, the Brazilian left must think long-term — about the next four decades of democracy in the country. There are names with the potential to lead Brazil into the future. Considering recent electoral successes and the possible alliances for a presidential ticket, figures like Marina Silva (REDE-AC), João Campos (PSB-PE), Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), Eduardo Paes (PSD-RJ), and even Supreme Federal Court Minister Flávio Dino begin to emerge on the horizon. A new generation of left-wing leaders — including figures from the center-left — is beginning to rise in the political landscape. One of the greatest achievements of the 2022 elections was precisely the formation of a broad coalition in defense of democracy. To avoid repeating the mistakes of 2018, it is essential that the Worker’s Party considers broader alliances and does not retreat into its own idiosyncrasies.
President Lula has stated that he is still considering whether to run for re-election. However, this decision is not solely about his personal will. Debating it involves a profound choice about the country’s future. The lessons of the Biden case and Brazil’s own memories of 2018 should serve as warnings about the kind of future we want to build — both in the short and long term. Current U.S. President Donald Trump — with an openly anti-democratic and authoritarian agenda — continues to be idolized by sectors of the Brazilian right and far right. No scenario would be more detrimental to the agenda of economic equity, social justice, human rights, and democratic strengthening than the possible return of the far right to power in Brazil.
*Machine translation proofread by Janaína da Silva.
Autor
Profª. de Ciencia Política de la PUC-Rio y del Programa de Posgrado en C. Sociales, de la UFRRJ. Doctora en C. Sociales (PUC-Rio). Miembro de la Red de Politólogas #NoSinMujeres.
Graduated from the University of Alabama and a Fulbright-John Lewis Civil Rights Scholar at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio).
