What distinguishes the Argentine political scene is the speed with which voters redefine the political map. In just over a month, a government that seemed exhausted managed to rebuild its base and project a new hegemony. This dynamism, though chaotic, also reveals the vitality of a political system capable of reinventing itself time and again.
Indeed, until just a few days ago, Argentina had a government characterized by structural weakness—lacking territorial, legislative, and technical support; without provincial governors or local leaders of its own; without control of the streets, which remain in the hands of social movements; and with only conditional support from the market and public opinion—while at the same time exhibiting a hegemonic ambition that struggled to translate its narrative into a solid territorial construction. The unfavorable electoral result in the province of Buenos Aires underscored the structural limits of the La Libertad Avanza (LLA) administration.
However, as in the 2023 elections, while voters at the municipal and subnational levels supported their local political leaders, at the national level a surprising and resounding victory for the ruling party took place—despite two years of government marked by a severe austerity program and the political wear and tear caused largely by successive self-inflicted crises. Among these we can mention President Milei’s address at the Davos Forum; the so-called “Cryptogate” episode; the opening of the legislative session that ended up centering public attention on the clash between the “engineer of chaos,” Santiago Caputo, and Radical Civic Union deputy Facundo Manes, rather than on the presidential speech itself at the beginning of March; the “confusing” incident involving (former) national deputy candidate José Luis Espert… and the list goes on.
What factors explain La Libertad Avanza’s victory?
La Libertad Avanza (LLA) triumphed in fifteen provinces, including resounding victories in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Córdoba, among others, leaving only nine provinces outside the ruling wave: Catamarca, Corrientes, Formosa, La Pampa, La Rioja, Tucumán, Santa Cruz, Santiago del Estero, and San Juan.
As a result of this victory, the ruling party is now close to achieving its own quorum, with allies in the Chamber of Deputies and veto power in the National Senate, having gained twelve seats in the upper chamber.
Several factors help explain this success. The first is the implementation of the Single Paper Ballot, (BUP, for its acronym in Spanish) which made it possible to carry out a more transparent vote count, thus dispelling suspicions traditionally associated with the “long ballot” system—such as ballot theft or potential voter manipulation.
Another key factor was the fear of the return of Peronism in its Kirchnerist variant (the so-called “Kuka risk”). Indeed, collective memory of the recent past outweighed the hardships of the present: if politics can be defined by dominant emotions, fear has been the main driver behind voters’ shifting behavior.
Finally, it is worth noting the failure of alternative electoral options such as Provincias Unidas (PU), which were unable to break through the polarized climate between the two main ideological blocs—Fuerza Patria and La Libertad Avanza. Only one district leader from PU managed to win in his territory: the governor of Corrientes Province, Gustavo Valdés.
Between surprise and uncertainty
Based on these initial observations, one may wonder whether President Milei now has a clear path toward reelection in 2027.
The answer is ambiguous, given the limited predictive value of midterm elections. One may recall the successful comeback of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011 after her 2009 defeat, as well as Mauricio Macri’s failed 2019 bid following his 2017 victory.
From a regional perspective, the Argentine case confirms a broader Latin American pattern: disruptive leaderships can emerge rapidly and consolidate power, but their sustainability depends on institutionalization. In this sense, Milei shares a dilemma similar to that faced by other outsiders who rose to power—from Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil—namely, the challenge of transforming initial mobilization into a durable political structure.
Argentine politics always brings surprises…
The song “Pedro Navaja”, composed and performed by Rubén Blades with arrangements by Willie Colón, is one of the most emblematic pieces of the salsa genre.
The story narrates the fate of Pedro Navaja, a neighborhood criminal, and his unexpected encounter with a prostitute, which ends in tragedy. The final verse—“life gives you surprises, surprises life gives you”—became a proverbial phrase throughout Latin America, reflecting the song’s ironic and social tone.
That very phrase could well describe the recent shifts in Argentina’s electoral landscape.
Autor
Political Scientist. Associate Professor at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). PhD in Contemporary Latin America from the Instituto Universitario de Investigación Ortega y Gasset (Spain).
