On March 9, 2025, Honduras’ electoral process will begin with the primary elections. This electoral event is of crucial importance because, according to the Electoral Law, presidential elections are decided in the first round by a simple majority. This makes the primaries a political test in which parties gauge their strength ahead of the general elections.

In these elections, political parties will select their candidates for the presidency, three vice presidencies, 128 congressional seats with their respective alternates, and 298 municipal mayoralties. The candidates chosen in this phase will compete in the general elections scheduled for November 30, 2025.

Three political parties are participating in the primary elections. In the National Party, the candidates vying for leadership include former mayor Nasry “Tito” Asfura, former first lady Ana García—wife of ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández—current congressman Jorge Zelaya, and former manager of the National Electric Energy Company (ENEE), Roberto Martínez Lozano. In the ruling Liberty and Refoundation Party (Libre), the candidates are Defense Minister Rixi Moncada and National Congress Vice President Rasel Tomé. For the Liberal Party, the presidential hopefuls include Jorge Cálix, Salvador Nasralla, Maribel Espinoza, and Luis Zelaya.

Crisis in the National Party and the rise of the Liberal Party

The National Party (PN), dominant from 2010 to 2022, is experiencing a crisis tied to organized crime and drug trafficking, which led to the arrest and conviction of former president Juan Orlando Hernández (2014-2022). Extradited and sentenced to 45 years in prison in the United States for drug-related crimes, his legacy is a burden for the four nationalist candidates.

The PN’s collapse has paved the way for the resurgence of the Liberal Party (PL), which had dominated Honduran politics from its founding in 1891 until the 2009 crisis. Back then, former president Manuel Zelaya (2006-2009), attempting to amend the Constitution to allow his re-election with Hugo Chávez’s support, fractured the party. His expulsion led to the creation of Libre, which became the PN’s main rival and took power in 2022 with Xiomara Castro as president. Now, with the PN weakened, the PL seeks to reclaim its historical leadership.

Among the Liberal candidates, Salvador Nasralla stands out. A well-known sports presenter on Tegucigalpa television, he was appointed vice president in the November 2021 elections as part of an alliance between his party and Libre, led by Xiomara Castro. He has run for president three times (2013, 2017, and 2021), competing under different parties and alliances, including some with Libre.

Despite not being a traditional Liberal, Nasralla enjoys widespread popularity due to his media presence and populist leadership style. His anti-establishment rhetoric, promoted since founding the Anti-Corruption Party (PAC) in 2013, places him within the global populist wave. However, his main challenge will be securing acceptance within the Liberal Party, which must decide whether to support an outsider with strong public backing or a candidate more rooted in party structures, such as Luis Zelaya or Jorge Cálix.

Libre: continuity, corruption and drug trafficking

In the ruling Libre party, two candidates are vying for the nomination: Rixi Moncada, a close confidante of the presidential couple (Zelaya-Castro), and Rasel Tomé, vice president of the National Congress. Polls show Moncada with a significant lead, as she represents continuity for the government. However, Libre faces allegations of corruption and drug trafficking ties.

In 2024, the release of a “narco-video” by Insight Crime sparked scandal, revealing a 2013 meeting between powerful drug traffickers and politician Carlos Zelaya, brother-in-law of Honduran President Xiomara Castro. The video showed criminals offering $650,000 to finance Libre’s campaign.

The scandal plunged the ruling party into a deep political crisis, leading to the resignation of Carlos Zelaya—a congressman and secretary of the National Congress—as well as his son José Manuel Zelaya, Honduras’ defense secretary, and Rafael Sarmiento, leader of Libre’s congressional bloc, whom Carlos Zelaya implicated as the coordinator of the meeting. This controversy has strengthened the Liberal Party’s accusations that the ruling party may be using drug money to fund its electoral campaigns.

Key factors in the campaign

Beyond partisan disputes, the election campaign will be shaped by critical issues such as corruption, drug trafficking, insecurity, the economic crisis, and relations with the United States. A particularly contentious point has been Xiomara Castro’s recent proposal to close the U.S. military base in Palmerola in response to potential mass deportations of Hondurans under the administration of Donald Trump. To implement this measure, Castro’s government would have to cancel the bilateral military assistance agreement signed with the U.S. in 1954, which could jeopardize decades of cooperation and lead to diplomatic tensions and economic sanctions. The proposal has sparked fierce criticism from Nasralla, who accuses the government of aligning with China and warns that Libre seeks to establish an authoritarian model akin to Venezuela’s.

Fraud allegations are also expected to play a significant role in the election. Nasralla has suggested that Libre may attempt to manipulate the process, raising the specter of a political crisis similar to the one in 2017, when the National Party was accused of electoral irregularities in Juan Orlando Hernández’s re-election.

Lastly, electoral violence remains a concern. The recent assassination of a municipal candidate in Lamaní, Comayagua, less than 40 days before the primaries, highlights the growing political polarization and violence. This underscores the urgent need to ensure a secure, free, and transparent electoral process.

_{*Machine translation proofread by Ricardo Aceves.}