With nearly all ballots counted, Abelardo de la Espriella, candidate of the Defenders of the Homeland movement, obtained 43.7% of the vote (more than 10 million votes), surpassing Iván Cepeda Castro of the Historic Pact, who reached 40.9%, a difference of 2.8 percentage points. Colombia is headed to a runoff on June 21, in the midst of the FIFA World Cup.
Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center) finished third with 6.9%, while Sergio Fajardo Valderrama secured 4.3%. Together, they account for 2,626,537 votes, making them the primary electoral target for the runoff. Other candidates such as Claudia López and Roy Barreras will also play a relevant role, particularly in strengthening opinion-based campaigning.
Did the polls fail?
The five polling firms authorized by the National Electoral Council (CNE) placed De la Espriella between 21% and 37.3% in voting intention, with a weighted average that did not exceed 33%. The actual result puts him more than ten points above his highest poll rating. Meanwhile, Cepeda, projected between 33.4% and 44.6%, finished above 40% at the ballot box, indicating that his electoral base mobilized reasonably well. This can be explained, in part, by the decline in projected support for other candidates such as Paloma Valencia.
Two hypotheses help explain this outcome. The first is the “shy voter” effect: De la Espriella supporters who either did not disclose their preference in telephone or digital surveys, or who were not adequately measured, but who voted freely at the polls. The second is the differential mobilization effect: the social media networks that propelled De la Espriella likely activated voters who were not captured in polling samples. Fajardo (4.26%) also outperformed his projection (2.4%), drawing centrist voters away from the Historic Pact—voters who, in polls, had tended to favor Cepeda.
Together, Valencia and Fajardo account for 2,626,537 votes that will prove decisive in the runoff contest. Valencia’s Democratic Center vote has a natural affinity with De la Espriella’s Defenders of the Homeland movement. The candidate and the Democratic Center have already announced their endorsement. However, her vice-presidential running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo, is still weighing the decision.
Fajardo’s electorate, more fragmented and technocratic in nature, is more evenly contested between the two finalists. Meanwhile, the votes of Claudia López and Roy Barreras are expected to move toward the progressive candidate. This scenario places the Defenders of the Homeland candidate very close to the threshold needed for victory, even under low-turnout conditions.
The map that has not changed: 2016 and 2026
As for the territorial distribution of votes, there have been no substantial changes over the past ten years. The map of the 2026 first round reproduces, with remarkable precision, the political geography left by the October 2016 peace plebiscite.
De la Espriella won in 15 departments, while Cepeda prevailed in the remaining 17, plus Bogotá. Abelardo’s strongest regions were Antioquia, Casanare, Santander, Norte de Santander, Boyacá, the Coffee Region, Meta, Arauca, and Cundinamarca—virtually the same departments where the “No” vote defeated the peace process ten years ago. Cepeda, meanwhile, prevailed on the Caribbean Coast (Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, and Sucre), along the Pacific Coast (Chocó, Cauca, Nariño, and Valle del Cauca), in the Amazon region (Amazonas, Putumayo, Vaupés, and Guainía), and in Bogotá—precisely the territories where the “Yes” vote won in 2016.
Colombia remains electorally divided along the same lines, but polarization continues to intensify with each passing day.
And the government’s candidate?
For Cepeda, the path to the presidency requires several difficult conditions to be met simultaneously: maintaining his first-round base, capturing at least 45–50% of the votes cast for candidates such as Fajardo, and mobilizing urban abstainers and younger voters with a compelling narrative. Four years ago, Petro won the runoff with a message built around hope and the promise of change; in 2026, it is De la Espriella who is capitalizing on the anti-Petro vote. This may also signal that Colombia is beginning to move beyond the figure of Álvaro Uribe as the most influential leader of the political right.
Currently, the race is extremely close, and electoral specters abound, fueling the narratives of both campaigns. A possible constituent assembly, the so-called “mafioso culture,” recent electoral outcomes across Latin America, and the actions of President Gustavo Petro—all of these elements have contributed to an electoral agenda dominated by emotionally charged statements rather than policy proposals.
Three decisive weeks lie ahead for Colombia’s future, with one certainty: the country remains deeply divided, and whoever assumes the presidency will face the challenge of governing for all Colombians. Hopefully, while respecting institutions and acquired rights.
Autor
Assistant Professor at Externado University of Colombia. Master's degree in Government and Public Management in Latin America from Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona. Member of the Network of Women Political Scientists.
