On December 24, after more than three weeks had passed since the election, Honduras’s National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Narsy Asfura (National Party) the winner over Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party) by a margin of 26,338 votes, with the incumbent left-wing candidate Rixi Moncada (LIBRE) trailing far behind in third place. The shadow of fraud, conspiracies, and foreign interventions has been present for years in Honduras’s tense political dynamic. However, Donald Trump’s statements in favor of Asfura—discrediting both Nasralla and Moncada—and the announcement of the release of former president and fellow National Party member Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH), two days before the elections, have been used by the government to demand the annulment of the election.
Fraud and foreign intervention
On December 8, 2025, after the first results from the CNE were made public, Rixi Moncada announced that she did not recognize the elections, alleging interference and coercion by the President of the United States. She called for a mobilization on December 13, and the following day President Xiomara Castro referred to an “electoral coup,” asserting that the elections should not be accepted because they were marked by interference, manipulation, and blackmail.
Former president Manuel Zelaya, husband of the current president, who initially acknowledged defeat, later called for a protest mobilization. Meanwhile, the president of Congress, Luis Redondo, stated that he would not validate the election results due to both external pressures and pressure from organized crime. On January 2, Zelaya spoke of the legitimacy of an “insurrection” and asked Redondo to formally analyze whether the results should be accepted or not.
The delay in electoral results and interruptions in the vote count generated uncertainty and tension throughout the political system. However, the situation was not very different from that of 2021. The difference this time was the boycott by the LIBRE councilor on the CNE (who was ultimately replaced by his alternate) and the attitude of Nasralla’s and LIBRE’s representatives, who refused to staff the recount tables, prolonging the process. Finally, on December 18 the formal recount process began, and on the 24th the CNE declared the winner.
At the congressional level, the victorious party won 49 seats, the Liberals 41, and the ruling party 35. The remaining three seats are split between PINU and the Christian Democratic Party. In addition, the National Party prevailed in 151 municipalities, mostly rural or mid-sized, with exceptions such as the capital Tegucigalpa; the Liberal Party won in 76, retaining the urban vote; while LIBRE won 69 mayoralties, maintaining a presence across the country.
What comes next?
Salvador Nasralla and his wife, an elected member of Congress also from the Liberal Party, revived the traditional rhetoric of fraud and called for citizen mobilization and confrontation, as has been the case since 2009. In fact, the presidential candidate clashed with leaders of his own party and urged the rank and file to support him. He later promoted his wife as the next president of the National Congress with the support of LIBRE.
The leadership of the Liberal Party, however, called for calm and accepted results that once again make the party a key player in the country’s governance, both in the National Congress and in many mayoralties. For the moment, the mobilization of Liberal militants demanded by Nasralla has not materialized, but it remains to be seen how much support he has among elected lawmakers to complicate the governability of incoming president Nasry Asfura from the National Congress—either by hindering the formation of majorities or by forging a more or less stable majority with LIBRE.
Juan Orlando Hernández: The former president pardoned by Trump
On January 2, the former president reasserted himself and defended his innocence in a televised interview. But the most significant aspect was his direct attack on his former rival Nasralla, whom he faced in the 2017 election. Nasralla has always claimed that the elections that year—also decided by a narrow margin between the two leading candidates—were rigged, and he justified his alliance with Xiomara Castro in 2021 as a mission to put an end to JOH’s “narco-dictatorship.”
The confrontation between JOH and Nasralla foreshadows that supporters of the Liberal candidate will align with LIBRE in the National Congress. However, traditional local structures belong to the Liberal Party, which may mean that Nasralla’s influence is not as significant.
For its part, the ruling party has been pushed aside by the two traditional parties. Probably Xiomara Castro’s mistake throughout her term has been to rely on her family, the Zelayas, and on very close supporters. What has become known as “the big family,” coupled with Zelaya’s traditional authoritarianism, has been rejected in Honduras by a large segment of the population.
The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela will have significant effects throughout the region. For now, Xiomara Castro has made statements supporting Maduro and the Venezuelan government. One question is whether Maduro’s fall will affect the transition of power in Honduras. Asfura is a well-known pragmatist and could strike a deal to avoid reprisals against the Zelaya family.
However, such a pact is not simple, because both Zelaya and Nasralla have for years been entrenched in a logic of confrontation and fear the influence that JOH may exert over Asfura. Some members of the Zelaya family have been linked to drug trafficking, and Nasralla may feel his political and economic interests threatened—especially given his open confrontation with the leadership of the Liberal Party, which controls the party’s territorial power.
Will the government ultimately accept the electoral results? Most likely they will, because the ruling party lacks the capacity for mobilization and its image is severely worn. However, as of now it has not done so, and no commission has been formed to facilitate the transition of power.
Autor
National Researcher Level II affiliated with El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. PhD in Political Science and Sociology from the National University of Distance Education, Madrid.
