In her sixth State of the Union address, Ursula von der Leyen presented the European Parliament with the Commission’s priorities for the new cycle. The message, amplified through an unprecedented digital communications strategy, also offered some clues about the future of relations between the European Union and Latin America, despite the absence of any direct references.
The foundations: sovereignty and the economy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the cost of importing fossil fuels, while Europe’s trade deficit with China amounts to €1 billion a day. Against this backdrop, von der Leyen stressed that the top priority for an independent Europe is to revive the economy.
Meanwhile, Latin America’s economy is slowing its growth, and governments must strike a balance between closer ties with the United States and China. The region can therefore position itself strategically as a reliable supplier of critical raw materials, helping to diversify risk and reduce energy prices.
In addition, biregional trade and investment will also benefit from the Single Market roadmap, streamlined permitting procedures and reduced administrative burdens, as well as the announced Savings and Investment Union and the new banking package announced by Ursula von der Leyen.
It is worth recalling that the president’s reference to the need to achieve fiscal sustainability came amid arduous negotiations over the Union’s next budget for 2028–2035. In this regard, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), whose definitive implementation began in January 2026, is the region’s main source of concern, particularly for exporters from Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
The two turning points: climate change and artificial intelligence
In von der Leyen’s words, “this summer has been the summer of truth,” highlighting the devastating impacts of climate change. At the same time, the Latin American region will continue to be battered by a super El Niño in the coming months. Hence, cooperation in support of the planet and communities—whether through the exchange of experiences, the Global Gateway European Investment Agenda, or coordination in multilateral forums such as COP—could gain momentum thanks to the European Commission President’s proposals for climate-change adaptation technologies, climate insurance partnerships, and initiatives addressing water, wildfires and heatwaves.
At a time when there are growing public calls to rein in AI, the European Union and Latin America share an interest in empowering rather than replacing people and face the concentration of technology companies in the United States and China. In her speech, Ursula von der Leyen pledged to strengthen cooperation with like-minded partners in model evaluation and early warning systems. As several Latin American countries move forward with AI regulation and support local solutions, this cooperation could take shape through the EU–CELAC Digital Alliance.
Defense and the distribution of prosperity: foreign policy and security
The most surprising proposal in the speech was associated membership for Canada, followed by the creation of a European Security Council. If implemented, both initiatives could pave the way for other non-European countries seeking to align themselves with the European Union to counter Donald Trump’s steep tariffs. However, such alignment would require Latin American countries to unequivocally condemn Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The speech’s only direct reference to the region concerned the recent signing of the free trade agreement with MERCOSUR. The CETA agreement with Canada could serve as an example for it, given the 75% increase in trade in less than a decade.
Nevertheless, international relations received little attention from von der Leyen, in particular in contrast with her speeches during her first years in office, when she extensively defended multilateralism and its reform—a priority issue for the region, which is soon expected to have its first female Secretary-General of the United Nations.
The guidelines outlined above will be crucial for European ambassadors, particularly those who have just taken up their posts on September 1 in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua and Panama. As like-minded partners, over the next 12 months Latin American countries and the European Union can work together to forge alliances among middle powers in the face of the unpredictability of the American friend.
Autor
Assistant to the Director of the International Center for Political and Social Studies (CIEPS-AIP Panama)
