After several decades of defining multilateral actions in response to the global climate crisis, not only are the outlooks discouraging, but they also reveal the imminent failure of the commitments assumed by various international organizations. The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Report maintains that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have reached historic highs, making it difficult to achieve the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. In fact, due to the current geopolitical approach to greenhouse gases (GHG), various bodies have forecast a 2.7 °C temperature increase by mid-century, far above the targets set in the Paris Agreement.
With 8.6% of the world’s population and contributing 7.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is not exempt from the serious consequences and impacts of the climate crisis: melting of the Andean glaciers by 30% of their surface area, desertification of some agricultural zones, increased flooding and landslides, as well as threats to infrastructure and to the most vulnerable populations—those generally most exposed to extreme events. Temperature has risen between 0.7 °C and 1 °C, and it is estimated that, in a high-emissions scenario, the effects of climate change would amount to around 4.6% to 30% of GDP per capita between now and 2100 (ECLAC, 2024).
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction ([UNDRR] 2024) states that Latin America occupies the second-most exposed position to natural disasters, after Asia and the Pacific. The agency emphasizes that more than 80% of disasters in the region originate in the climate crisis. Extreme events are increasingly deadly, with rainfall during dry seasons, severe droughts, disappearance of animal species, declines in river and lake levels, etc., all exacerbated by human activities. Among these events, El Niño and La Niña stand out as the most recurrent and aggressive. The projected adverse impacts, as well as the losses and damages associated with the climate crisis, intensify with every increase in global warming. Added to these risks are slow economic growth, political instability, displacement of entire communities, and loss of social and labor rights, among others.
One of the countries most affected by natural disasters is Brazil, with floods (115) and storms (15); Mexico stands out for the frequency of storms (81) and floods (48). Colombia recorded severe floods (76) and wet mass movements (23). Argentina experienced 78 events, the most significant being floods and, to a lesser degree, storms (17). Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and Costa Rica have been the most affected nations over the past two decades. Between 2000 and 2024, natural disasters in LAC have affected a growing number of people—about 194,060,903—of whom 30,494 lost their lives and 1,989,564 were left homeless.
Floods and cyclones, in addition to causing destruction, have displaced entire communities. Likewise, rising sea levels, droughts, and heat waves force the abandonment of land and social security (UNHCR, 2024). The destructive potential of these events increases inequality within and between the nations of the region, representing an existential threat. UNDRR estimated that, by 2050, the impacts of the climate crisis could force 17 million people in LAC to leave their homes. For its part, the UN has projected a global displacement of 250 million human beings by that same year—alarming, high numbers. The natural disasters and the heavy costs in lives and resources posed by the climate crisis place us before the urgent need to address its root causes. The greatest of these is, without a doubt, the reduction of greenhouse gases. Therefore, an energy reform is unavoidably required. The question is: Is there only one path toward that transition?
Contrary to the approaches proposed by developed countries, which advocate for a single route, we believe that LAC must pursue transitions of its own—distinct from those established by dominant elites and their market logics. Consequently, it is necessary to envision other imaginaries, taking into account local needs and the existence of different economic realities. These are alternatives that require, necessarily, understanding climate collapse not as an isolated fact, but as part of the civilizational crisis of capitalism.
Autor
National Coordinator of Electoral Transparency for Mexico and Central America. Master in Governance, Political Marketing and Strategic Communication from King Juan Carlos University (Spain). University professor.
