One region, all voices

“Deconstructing Diego”

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Soccer is a global event of such magnitude that it transcends cultural differences like no other. Its geopolitics can be simplified by stating that Latin America, here too, provides raw material to European clubs paid by the Chinese who own the television rights and petrodollars of sheikhs who buy equipment as a hobby. But unlike commodities, in soccer there is revenge when Messi, Maradona or Ronaldinho stop playing for their clubs to play for their national teams,for their people. Long live sovereignty!

The relationship between a “soccer player” – the word amateur here is short -, the game and its players transcends the playful and rational, taking root in something deeper, almost atavistic, which explains the reactions to Maradona’s death. Now then, how is it that people who are infallible in judging the work by the author’s conduct fell into collective hysteria? People who, for example, never saw Woody Allen’s films again because of his daughter’s complaints against him, even though every time they hear Rhapsody in Blue they remember the general shot of Manhattan in black and white. Or colleagues at the university who joined in the “stamina”, like a “brave slash”, while refusing to participate, with good reason, in unparalleled events. It seems that this November 25 they left aside the commemoration of the international day of the elimination of the gender violence.

these apparent inconsistencies should not surprise us, since they are the evidence that Maradona stopped being a great soccer player and a person with chiaroscuro to become a myth.

Nevertheless, and this is my point, these apparent inconsistencies should not surprise us, since they are the evidence that Maradona stopped being a great soccer player and a person with chiaroscuro to become a myth. As such, he is attributed with qualities that he does not have in order to socially construct a wonderful narrative, outside of historical time, in which reality and fiction are mixed. That is why his parishioners do not judge him for his behavior, as Zeus was not judged for incestuous child eating. And not only that, like actions of mythological beings become epic and find their lyric, however irregular they may be, the anti-regulatory goal of 86 was divine and part of revenge for a lost war. Meanwhile, another goal scored by the hand of the mortal Henry, who classified France to the world-wide one, ended in apologies of the player and the president of the Republic.

Why was it mythicized? To be a great soccer player can be a necessary condition, but not enough, even when his memory has been strengthened with a selection of good moments on youtube capable of nourishing that epic narrative that has permeated even the under-30s, forced absentees from Mexico 86 and unlikely spectators from USA 94, his last world cup, the doping world cup, and the prelude to his retirement three years later. It also seems insufficient that he never really left Villa Fiorito or forgot about his people. To the non-Argentinean devotees this does not say much and could seem a very conservative vision in which the talent does not avoid the condemnation to remain down or fall into misfortune.  A great contribution comes from the legend of the rebel -the vicious- who skillfully reconverted to political commitment thanks to his detoxifications in Cuba, approaching the Olympus of rebellion presided by Castro, Chavez and Che. As legends are not judged, no one saw political inconsistency in his service to the misogynist dictatorships of the Gulf.

what best explains the creation of this new universal myth is that soccer is the last great redoubt of the patriarchy

But in my opinion, what best explains the creation of this new universal myth is that soccer is the last great redoubt of the patriarchy, which is a matter of men and women. In the game and its festivities, men can, without being judged, say that they love another man, hug each other, cry, show their sensitivity, and at the same time be brave, besides feeding the gregariousness of the tribe. The perfect summary of this mixture of feelings is Simeone thanking the mothers of his players because “they made them hatch with eggs this big”.

Maradona was one of the best in a sport that means these and many other things and for this he has a devout admiration. The difference with other good players is that he knew how to transmit emotions to his fans on and off the court, at all levels, helping men to release feelings and manifest passions. This happened to the atheist Spanish vice president who prayed for him a sacrilegious Our Father – the most patriarchal of prayers – in which, heaven was Cuba and God the Father, Maradona. Not even the leader of a party named after a woman can escape the patriarchy, although he surely wants to, and eventually the alpha male comes out, as he defined himself while fantasizing about whipping a lady until she bleeds.

Finally, and this is the important thing, let’s not forget that myths have always had a political function and, although it seems that they belong to the people, when it comes to legitimizing power relations, the high priests who claim them appear. In the wake of the Casa Rosada we could see who they are.

The Budget that unleashed rage in Guatemala

Saturday, December 12 was the third consecutive protest in Guatemala. A thousand people gathered in front of the Presidential Palace to demand the resignation of President Alejandro Giammatei and a profound reform of the country’s political system. A few days before (on December 9), civil groups and indigenous and social organizations blocked roads in different areas of the country against “acts and resolutions of the Executive and Legislative Branches, which are trampling on the people of Guatemala.

The protests began on November 21 (#21N) and were directed at Congress after the vote on the national budget. And although this was suspended a few days later by the president himself, the citizen rage had been ignited.

The Budget of the Republic presented the priorities of the government of Alejandro Giammatei for the year 2021. In the context of a health crisis and an accumulation of social frustration, the protesters denounced both the significant increase in the budget (and the prospect of greater state indebtedness) and the government’s weak commitment to health (despite the health crisis), human rights and education.

Furthermore, the budget consolidated state interventions towards sectors affected by high suspicions of corruption, in particular the works and infrastructure sector.

what has happened since #21N is not only a question of “budget”.

However, what has happened since #21N is not only a question of “budget”. The Guatemalan indignation, which was expressed violently by the burning of part of Congress, deeply questions the political system as a whole.

Nonetheless, the wave of #21N has a fundamental background for understanding what is at stake. That déja-vu refers to the “Guatemalan spring” of April 2015, a social protest unprecedented since the October 1944 revolution, which was unleashed against President Otto Pérez Molina and his Vice President, Roxana Baldetti, in reaction to their links to a transnational corruption network. The case, better known as La Línea, concerned a network that operated through the detour of customs fees.

From April to September 2015, thousands of Guatemalans of all ages and social sectors took to the streets. For the first time, citizens were demonstrating massively against a system of corruption that directly touched the very top of the state. The evidence published by the Public Ministry and the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) that unleashed social rage precipitated the resignation of President Otto Pérez Molina in September 2015.

That “Primevera” was a first act of resistance against a structural and long-term trend of capture of the Guatemalan State by the country’s political and/or economic elite. Banners such as “they made the wrong generation”, “out criminals disguised as rulers”, “we are fed up with their lies”, “Guatemalans, let’s break the culture of silence” attested to this. This response, promoted by the movement #JusticeYa, brought together very diverse sectors of society under the same priority: to end a political system articulated around corruption. This precedent created fissures in the culture of impunity consolidated around the State. 

The consecutive elections of Jimmy Morales (2015) and Alejandro Giammatei (2019) can be understood as attempts at transitions by the state by focusing attention on the regular functioning of electoral contests to lower social pressure. However, the Guatemalan problem is far from electoral democracy. Without hiding new cases and a high level of social protest during the Morales administration (2015-2019), an attempt was made to normalize political-institutional life on inhospitable terrain.

the new “Guatemalan awakening” is the product of a historical process of accumulation of social frustration and exclusion

Beyond the budgetary issue, the new “Guatemalan awakening” is the product of a historical process of accumulation of social frustration and exclusion in the face of an inoperative political system. As well as from an immediate context characterized by a state of multi-sector crisis (health, environment, economic).

At the electoral level, a general election was organized in 2019 in a context of high politicization and judicialization of the electoral process (annulment of candidates of Thelma Aldana, Zury Ríos and Edwin Escobar) and of very low quality of the electoral offer, echoing the structural weakness of the Guatemalan political parties. The election took place without channeling the major social demands and there was a massive decline in participation, 61.8% in the first round and 42.7% in the second. Thus, the dysfunctionality of electoral democracy in a context of high social demands and expectations was fertile ground for social anger to be unleashed. 

The vote on the budget was the last straw, which transformed the population’s exhaustion into a new cycle of protests, some violent (burning down of Congress), some peaceful (#5D for the December 5 demonstrations, and #12D). The fed-up citizenry has favored a growing convergence of traditionally independent social sectors: indigenous associations, businesses, public and private universities and human rights organizations, etc.

At the political-institutional level, #21N represents the fed up with a government delegitimized by a critical management of the pandemic and by a late attention to populations affected by hurricanes Eta and Iota. On the other hand, the legislative branch also suffers from a significant lack of credibility due to the accumulation of corruption issues and instrumentalization of appointments of officials (see the recent case of judges to the Supreme Court of Justice and the Court of Appeals).

In this framework, the protests revealed fractures in the elites, with a deep political rupture between President Giammatei and his Vice President Guillermo Castillo, who immediately proposed a joint resignation in the face of the wave of protests “for the good of the country”. The latter also questioned the President’s invocation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter (of the Organization of American States, OAS).

With the declaration of the Human Rights Ombudsman’s Office that human rights violations occurred during the #21N protests, Guatemala’s political system seems even more weakened. Day by day the government shows an inability to protect both people and territory, and to legitimately exercise its sovereignty. And Guatemala’s dysfunctional democracy faces increasing citizen and social demands.

In the end, as in the Chilean case, it is clear that this is not a one-time outrage since voices are now being raised for a profound change in the political system. Some are calling for a change in the way the elections are run with a reform of the Electoral and Political Parties Law to achieve true political representation. Others call for more profound changes through a reform of the Constitution (the current Constitution dates from 1985).

It is not possible to anticipate or foresee the future of these protests, but we can say that they are part of an ascending trajectory of citizen and social demands in the face of a collapsed state. Undoubtedly, Guatemalan democracy is at a crossroads. 

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Photo of Surizar at Foter.com / CC BY-SA

The Consummation of Venezuela’s Last Vestige of Democracy

The last democratically-elected body that Venezuela had, has been sentenced to death with the recent parliamentary elections. These elections, defined from Miraflores Palace, mark the end of a series of uninterrupted attacks against the biggest political victory the opposition has registered in two decades. It has been an aggressive siege on all sides that lasted the entire legislature: Persecutions and imprisonments of lawmakers, armed assaults on plenary sessions, budget cuts, blocking of all constitutional powers and, even, the hijacking of parliamentary powers to be able to appoint the electoral authority. This is the greatest authoritarian display—by far—against a functioning parliament in Latin America in the last few decades.

This occurs as human rights’ massive violation, along with the destruction of the productive network and the country’s growing international isolation continue. A government, which electoral integrity, civil rights, public services and the food security of citizens are of almost no concern in light of its aspiration to totally control the State.

Against this backdrop, and due to a more aggressive version of Chavism, the call for elections to the National Assembly was an opportunity to give the final blow to the institutional space in which the opposition achieved its most important political advances. Despite the siege, since January 2019—and thanks to its 2015 electoral legitimacy—the opposition was able to have certain influence, nationally and internationally. However, the growing abstentionism that began in 2017 ended up favoring the authoritarian drift and the dismantling of the institutions.

Election without voters or winners

Once Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) had counted the few valid votes, it announced the results on Dec. 7. Despite the precarious credibility, data showed an undeniable drop in the participation rate, from 74% in 2015 to 30.5% currently. An equivalent cut of approximately 44% of the electorate, which would be half of the voters in the last election. This is more than the 31% reduction in voter turnout that occurred after the opposition withdrew from the 2005 parliamentary elections. 

In this way, the government, without any fuss or celebration, regained the majority in the parliament, not to advance its political agenda, but to keep a non-existent opposition in that platform. One less space to be silenced. After the arbitrary handling of the National Constituent Assembly in 2017, it is clear that Chavism’s political leadership doesn’t require deliberative organs, but rather popular tribunals of punishment and public derision. The fact that three out of ten Venezuelans voted, and that two of them have probably been forced due to their condition as public officials, is no reason for any celebration.

Maduro’s government once again made clear the majority’s undemocratic overrepresentation in the 2020 elections. It garnered 93% of the seats, with 60% of a few valid votes registered by the NEC. The same electoral manipulation that it did in the 2010 elections. So that, in 2021 Venezuela will have a single-colored parliamentary arch, similar to that in 2005, and only comparable to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, Nicaragua’s National Assembly, the Supreme Council of Kyrgyzstan or the Russian State Duma.

International pronouncements

As the days went by, rejection expressions emerged from democracies of the world. A group of actors, being a minority in the concert of nations, and yet influential, recognize the illegitimacy of this election, but doesn’t have a clear approach to the Venezuelan crisis. For now, they maintain their support to Juan Guaidó, but it is uncertain what the diplomatic management or minimal international agenda will be, in light of the largest migratory wave that the region has ever known.

In the first week after the election, the European Union, the United States, Canada and a large part of Latin America, except for Argentina, Bolivia and Mexico, made official statements not recognizing the elections. On the other hand, supporters, including Cuba and Russia—whose governments are not precisely characterized by the plurality of their parliaments or by electoral transparency—are expected to endorse the election results.

The support of more than 40 democracies in favor of the opposition, however, will do little, if there isn’t a strategic renewal that could offer alternatives beyond abstention, since the electoral asymmetry and lack of fair play are to be expected in a dictatorship. A rethinking that promotes greater coordination with the diaspora and Latinamerican governments as well as a redesign of communitary political activism within the country are necessary. This, considering the growing risk of doing politics in Venezuela and taking into consideration rural and urban areas where the state is conspicuous by its absence. This situation poses a dilemma for the Interim Government. As the time goes, the continuity and sustainability of foreign support is seriously threatened.

The opposition, for its part, consults

As for the opposition, it has launched the Popular Consultation. This is a mechanism that seeks to gather Venezuelan citizens’ will about Nicolás Maduro’s permanency in power, the holding of free presidential and parliamentary elections and a request to the international community to collaborate with the democratic cause. However, the very wording of the questions denotes a lack of ideas and the imprecision of the courses of action: A statement of purpose with three questions,  with no immediate or tangible political effect. 

Beyond the debate around participation and abstention, what the opposition is looking for with the consultation is to rebuild part of the legitimacy lost and justify, somehow, the possibility of extending its mandate beyond Jan. 5 of 2021, which is the date on which the legislature constitutionally ends. This is an important political challenge for the political continuity of the Interim Government led by Juan Guidó, who still considers himself the president in charge and owes his legitimacy to his position as the National Assembly’s president. 

In summary, these past legislative elections, rigged in the eyes of all, will exacerbate the country’ collapse and move it further away from a democratic transition with the suppression of both the parliament’s plurality and the vote’s political value as an instrument of social transformation. Therefore, the electoral path is being blurred from any collective content, dismembering the dialogue of a society that has been decimated, exiled and repressed. In 2021, Venezuela will have a parliament unaware of the humanitarian suffering of its people, without answers or dissent. It will have more seats but will represent 7.5 million fewer voters, many of them walking the world in search of better opportunities.

Translation from Spanish by Ricardo Aceves

Photo by huguito at Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

The storm that stalks Bolsonaro

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Elected with more than 55% of the votes in 2018 and on the basis of an anti-politics as usual platform, against the backdrop of the famous Lava Jato operation, Jair Bolsonaro came to power with undeniable political strength. After two years of government, his popularity remains above 30% approval, in spite of his poor management of the health crisis, as well as his actions openly contrary to democracy and the values of the 1988 Constitution. However, the year 2021 looks much more complicated for the former army captain.

Contrary to his predecessors, who had seen the number of mayoralties governed by their parties grow after his arrival at the Planalto Palace, Bolsonaro failed to take advantage of the recent municipal elections to reinforce his territorial structure. His inability to form a new coalition, after having left in 2019 the party that brought him to power (the Social Liberal Party, PSL), leaves him in a fragile position in the face of a mosaic of right-wing and center-right parties that imposed themselves in these last elections.

the results of this election show a loss of momentum in the anti-establishment discourse

Although the voters were mainly in favor of local issues, the results of this election show a loss of momentum in the anti-establishment discourse that has been progressively installed in Brazil from 2013 onwards. However, the main parties in Brazilian politics since the re-democratization – the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the Workers’ Party (PT) – have yet to learn how to take advantage of the continuity of the 2020 electoral cycle.

Paradoxically, it’s the parties that splintered from the military dictatorship’s official party (the National Renewal Alliance, ARENA), the Democratic Party (DEM) and the Progressive Party (PP) that achieved most electoral gains. This allowed them, together with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), to be seen as the great winners of this election. And it is likely that two of their leaders – the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, of the DEM, and the leader of the PP in the Chamber, Arthur Lira – will become the two main poles of power in the Chamber in view of the renewal of the presidency of the lower house in February 2021.

Such an election is always a thermometer of the political strength of the executive versus the legislative. In fact, it was following the election in 2015 of Eduardo Cunha (PMDB) as president of the House of Representatives that Dilma Rousseff began to progressively lose control of her political base in Congress. This led to her dismissal a year later.

Because of its political regime – coalition presidentialism, following political scientist Sergio Abranches – Brazil has always been a country difficult to govern. As of 2006, with the end of the so-called “verticalization of alliances”, which imposed a common coalition policy at the state and federal levels, the number of parties increased considerably, further fragmenting Congress and making it difficult to build majorities within it.

Bolsonaro has prevented Congress from approving the opening of an impeachment process by handing over several ministries to various center-right parties.

So far, Bolsonaro has prevented Congress from approving the opening of an impeachment process by handing over several ministries to various center-right parties. However, this support base is fragile.

The economic outlook for next year has deteriorated. The programmed end of the “emergency aid”, created during the month of April at the behest of the opposition in Congress, will cause a considerable loss in the income of the poorest families in the country, which will translate into an increase in unemployment. According to the Brazilian Institute of Statistics, between May and October, almost 4 million people declared themselves unemployed, so the unemployment rate was estimated at 14.1%, the highest since the statistical series exists.

This has consequences for the president’s popularity: if thanks to the “emergency aid” Bolsonaro achieved his best popularity rate of the year – 40% during the month of September according to the IBOPE institute – since then his approval has been falling, in parallel with the decrease in the value of the state subsidy. According to a survey published a few days ago, the disapproval rate went from 43% to 48%, becoming the majority again (the approval went from 45% to 42%).

It is probable that this tendency will continue if the government is unable to find a formula capable of giving continuity to “emergency aid”. In a context of the resurgence of the pandemic, – which has already cost the lives of more than 170,000 people – and of growing international isolation after the defeat in November of its main ally, Donald Trump, it is possible that the parties allied with the government in Congress will demand more dividends from Bolsonaro in the interest of maintaining his loyalty.

But with empty coffers, and without a defined political program, it will be much more complex to get around the clouds that are gathering over the economy, politics or health. And this time, it will be difficult to invoke the “danger of communism” to weather the coming storm.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Photo by jeso.carneiro at Foter.com / CC BY-NC

The energy sector: an opportunity to get out of the crisis

At the end of the year, there was much discussion about the impact of COVID-19 on the economies of countries in the region and the world. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected the economic contraction for Latin America at -9.1%.  Negative growth rates have been estimated for all countries in the region, but there has been little discussion of the importance of the energy sector, which may well represent the second most important impact factor for the current crisis.

Although the COVID-19 crisis broke out in China at the end of 2019, it is at the beginning of 2020 that the ravages of the pandemic and the disagreements between the main players in the oil sector are beginning to be felt in Latin America. This, in addition to other factors, has resulted in an oil price war ever since.

Latin American countries, with economies dependent on fluctuations in commodity prices, have a limited capacity to respond to the current situation.

Latin American countries, with economies dependent on fluctuations in commodity prices, have a limited capacity to respond to the current situation. This situation was made even more difficult by the contraction of demand in China and by various social pressures and protests in countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and a deepening humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.

Uncertainty about the markets’ reaction to the crisis, the low probability of a rapid recovery of the economy, and the contraction of consumption in general have been putting negative pressure on the fiscal sector. The impossibility of collecting taxes and the fall in oil prices have limited the response of States to the multidimensional crisis of 2020.

The energy sector, meanwhile, has a positive correlation with the pandemic that has caused a significant contraction in global energy demand, and therefore, in energy prices. Within the production chain, the effects of confined transport and the drop in imports of intermediate goods in countries such as Mexico and Brazil represented major shocks for two of the largest economies in the region. Not to mention the contraction of the tourism sector in all countries.

another sector seriously impacted at the regional level is the electricity sector.

According to the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), another sector seriously impacted at the regional level is the electricity sector. Governments have sought to ensure service during the period of confinement decreed in all countries of the region, and in some cases tariff reductions have been implemented. These policy decisions adversely affected the fiscal sector, already stressed before the pandemic. 

Ecuador was the first country in Latin America to make fiscal adjustments, which included the reduction of the state apparatus, cuts in bureaucracy and the liberalization of the price of some fuels. Each country in the region has implemented different policies to the same end, such as renegotiations with the International Monetary Fund in the case of Argentina.

The already complicated economies of the region will require creative fiscal solutions as tax collection remains complex, as well as other structural reforms, given the need to ensure, at the very least, the functioning of health systems for the duration of the pandemic. In a context of low income, these needs will have to be met in some way, without neglecting the stability of government budgets.

All these conditions have brought back to the fore two fundamental issues: the dependence of economies on unstable commodity prices and the increasingly imperative need for new forms or sources of energy. For example, the accelerated progress of technology and its increasingly intensive use in all phases of the production process means that attention is focused on copper as a commodity and on energy from wind, geothermal or hydraulic sources.

It is urgent to think about sustainable production alternatives for the economy and the environment.

Once again, growth will be dependent on natural resources. It is urgent to think about sustainable production alternatives for the economy and the environment. It is urgent to find more efficient production processes, but also to produce goods that not only benefit economies and companies, but also the planet.

The fiscal stability of many economies depends heavily on oil prices. Finding sustainable alternatives becomes imperative in order to ensure budgets, decent work sources that depend on the energy sector, and the adequate use of oil revenues or related industries in the countries of the region in the long term.

Many investments will be required in the medium term, while in the short-term government spending responses will be required to continue to address the pandemic and the crisis. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that investments in the diversification of economies will bring good results in the future.

Finally, investments should not be focused only on energy projects. Countries must think holistically about it, from preparing professionals for the sector, to technology development, to government support in the form of subsidies at least at the beginning of the transition. The reorganization of the energy sector architecture in the region, strategic alliances, and progressive changes in energy matrices will eventually bring positive results for Latin American economies.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Photo by PhotoLanda at Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

Is it possible to de-dollarize the Ecuadorian economy?

On 9 January 2000 the Ecuadorian government of that time announced the adoption of the US dollar as legal tender, following a deep economic, financial and social crises. Between 1998 and 2000 nominal GDP fell by 35 % and per capita GDP by 33 %. The sucre was devalued by 359.7 % as a result of the policies adopted. Poverty increased from 56% in 1995 to 69% in 2001; unemployment rose from 8% to 17%. Real wages fell by some 40 per cent. The decision was unilateral, desperate and lacking a process of political and economic coordination.

at the beginning of the 21st century, several economists raised the possibility that more countries in Latin America would dollarized to alleviate the exchange rate instability of the 1980s and 1990s

Although, at the beginning of the 21st century, several economists raised the possibility that more countries in Latin America would dollarized to alleviate the exchange rate instability of the 1980s and 1990s, after dollarization in El Salvador in 2001 no other Latin American country embraced this system. The fact is that dollarization, like any other exchange rate regime, has both benefits and costs.

On the one hand, a dollarization scheme facilitates: macroeconomic stability and international credibility, reduced information costs, relative price stability, elimination of exchange rate risk, reduced country risk and interest rates, and increased trade with the United States.

On the other hand, a dollarization system also implies: the loss of monetary emission and exchange rate policy, the renunciation of seigniorage income, a deterioration in sovereignty, the absence of a lender of last resort and the absence of a source of fiscal financing.

the main macroeconomic aggregates have evolved favorably in the post-dollarization period.

In the case of Ecuador, the main macroeconomic aggregates have evolved favorably in the post-dollarization period. Inflation has been in the low single-digit range, unemployment has been moderate, sovereign risk has been lower compared to the era of monetary autonomy, and investment has grown at a faster rate.

However, other indicators have not performed as expected. Foreign direct investment has been minimal. The change in the productive matrix has not been able to be consolidated. The economy reflects a greater dependence on oil compared to the pre-dollarization period. Furthermore, and more importantly, external imbalances (such as the appreciation of the dollar, the fall in oil prices or the current COVID-19 pandemic) magnify the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to the inability to use monetary policy tools.

The relevant point is that, although dollarization provides an anchor for inflation, it does not guarantee that structural and institutional problems will be solved.

far from a discussion with solid technical arguments, de-dollarization has been used as a banner for political disqualification

At the beginning of 2021, Ecuador will elect a new government. In this context, the possibility of de-dollarizing the economy is once again on the agenda. However, far from a discussion with solid technical arguments, de-dollarization has been used as a banner for political disqualification by generating concern among the population.

The majority of citizens are against a system with its own currency, as several surveys show that, in general, Ecuadorians are in favor of dollarization. But this perception, whether wrong or not, is largely influenced by past episodes, in particular by the erratic handling of monetary policy at the end of the 20th century.

But is de-dollarizing the Ecuadorian economy a real possibility? Despite the fact that dollarization in Ecuador presents weaknesses in its construction and operation, in the short term the most appropriate decision would be to maintain it. Although it is necessary to specify that the ideal scenario for economic management is to have monetary autonomy and the possibility of making adjustments to the exchange rate, the implementation of this system has coincided with a prolonged period of macroeconomic stability, despite several adverse events that have occurred over the course of these two decades.

Nevertheless, in order to maintain dollarization, it is essential that certain conditions be established in the medium term that will allow this regime to be strengthened. These are: to promote the development of more sustainable productive sectors, while reducing oil dependence; to establish legal mechanisms to avoid irresponsible management of fiscal resources and to prevent the expansion of public debt; to seek a passive role for the Central Bank in the management of monetary policy; to increase the presence of international financial institutions to avoid unexpected events of illiquidity; and to promote a greater degree of flexibility in the labor market.

it is necessary for Ecuador to establish monetary alternatives for the long term.

Finally, it is necessary for Ecuador to establish monetary alternatives for the long term. History has shown that even rigid exchange rate regimes can be broken. Therefore, it is possible that in the future a monetary option will be the adoption of a regional currency versus a hypothetical exit from dollarization, even more convenient to the option of returning to a domestic currency scheme.

However, a project of such magnitude should be structured with the strictest technical criteria and taking as reference the process of monetary integration of the Eurozone and the Latin American reality.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Photo by Cocoabiscuit in Foter.com / CC BY-NC-ND

Refugee protection in South America: Lessons for the EU

Co-author Luisa Feline Freier

South American countries have received far more Venezuelans than the number of asylum seekers most European countries received during the Mediterranean refugee crisis. While the EU, with a total population of around 450 mn persons, received 1.5 mn Syrians at the height of the crisis, South American countries, with a similar population (430 mn), received over 4.5 mn Venezuelans in the last four years. Although the Venezuelan exodus slowed down due to the pandemic, it never ceased and experts expect the outflow to significantly increase once borders across the region fully reopen.

The European Union (EU) recently released the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which makes a sharp distinction between ‘refugees’ and ‘irregular migrants,’ meaning that there are some who deserve protection and others who should be detained and returned.  We suggest that South America presents an interesting —and contrasting— case for mobility and refugee protection. The South American regime makes the distinction between irregular entry and stay, and asylum seekers and refugees, almost irrelevant in practice, as irregular migrants have access to basic rights and legal residence, in many cases.

Latin America’s Formal Refugee Protection Regime

The Cartagena Declaration is the flagship instrument of the liberalization of Latin American asylum governance. The Cartagena refugee definition extends protection to “persons who have fled their country because their lives, safety or freedom have been threatened by generalized violence, foreign aggression, internal conflicts, massive violation of human rights or other circumstances which have seriously disturbed public order.” To this day, most South American countries have included the expanded definition of refugee from the Cartagena Declaration into their national laws, alongside a human rights-centred approach to refugee protection.

Overall, Latin American laws are very progressive.

Overall, Latin American laws are very progressive. In South America, Brazil and Argentina offer interesting cases, as the constitutions of both countries include the right to asylum. The refugee laws of both countries extend the same rights of nationals to refugees, except the right to vote in national elections. They also grant both refugees and asylum seekers the right to work, call for a swift accreditation of foreign degrees, and offer full access to public healthcare and education.

De Facto Protection through the Regional Mobility Regime

There are currently two contentious issues regarding the legal status of Venezuelans in the region. The first is the question of whether Venezuelans should be considered migrants or refugees, as there is no regional consensus on whether or not to extend refugee status to them based on the Cartagena definition. Thus far, only Brazil and Mexico have applied the Cartagena refugee definition to a significant number of Venezuelan asylum seekers. Most South American countries decided to adopt diverse ad hoc measures, such as temporary visas and border mobility cards.

The second issue is that Venezuela was the only country that had not ratified the Residence Agreement (RAM) of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) of 2002, a milestone in regional migration governance in South America, which could give legal migratory status to most Venezuelans living in other South American countries. The RAM creates a free residence regime by providing a right of residence for up to two years, after which migrants can apply for permanent residence. It guarantees a wide set of rights that include treatment equal to that of nationals, family reunification and special rights for children born in one of the Member States (including access to education). In the RAM, the regular vs. irregular status of migrants does not determine migrants’ access to rights and regularisation. This constitutes a fundamental difference with the EU Pact, which is centered on the ‘control’ and ‘return’ of irregular migrants. However, only Argentina and Uruguay apply (unilaterally) the RAM to Venezuelans.

Conclusion: Lessons from the South

South America presents an interesting case that could offer some lessons for other world regions. The South American regime works in different, and sometimes contradictory, ways. On the one hand, legislation is exceptionally progressive including the expanded refugee definition of Cartagena and the socio-economic integration of refugees and migrants. For example, across the region, Venezuelans can work as soon as they arrive in most host countries, regardless of their status as migrants or refugees.

countries such as Ecuador and Peru, have limited legal entry for political reasons.

On the other hand, there is also room for learning, as formal refugee legislation coexists with different policy practices, some of which are restrictive and violate international obligations. For example, countries such as Ecuador and Peru, have limited legal entry for political reasons. In either case, there is regional awareness that borders are porous and that it is not possible to stop people from migrating.

It is true that the cultural similarities, including virtually non-existent language and religious differences, between Venezuelans and their regional neighbours facilitate their integration, while the differences between Middle-Eastern and North European migrants and Europeans are broader. However, the logic of the South American regime is different as it considers that the solution to irregular migration is not deportation, but regularisation. Migrants with a regular status are easier to integrate into society and the formal economy. Regularisation is especially important in times of COVID-19, when access to healthcare is crucial. Although there are important differences between countries and increasing resistance to regularisation due to the large scale of Venezuelan displacement in some countries, overall this stands in opposition to the logic of blocking the arrival of migrants that prevails in the EU.

An extended English version was published in the forum of the ASILE project (Global Asylum Governance and the European Union’s Role)

Photo by UNICEF Ecuador on Foter.com / CC BY

Covid-19 vaccines and power pathologies in Latin America

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Co-author Belén Herrero

As major clinical trials come to a close, the World Health Organization estimates that 2 billion doses will be needed by 2021. Everything indicates that, once the first vaccines are available, the logic of the market will take precedence. Who goes first? 

Nine months into the pandemic, no action has been taken to declare these vaccines a global public good. It is estimated that wealthy nations – with only 13 percent of the world’s population – have already pre-acquired half of the world’s potential vaccine supply. In addition, the various laboratories involved in manufacturing continue to demand exclusivity and intellectual property protection. This prevents low- and middle-income countries from preparing more quickly to produce and export generic versions.

the debate on health sovereignty in Latin America takes on a central role.

Here the debate on health sovereignty in Latin America takes on a central role. On the one hand, there is the Covid-19 Global Access Fund for Vaccines (Covax initiative), a public-private initiative co-led by the Gavi Alliance for Vaccines (Gavi), the Coalition for the Promotion of Innovations in Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI) and the World Health Organization (WHO). COVAX aims to become a global mechanism for the purchase of vaccines. On the other hand, the coronavirus vaccine produced by Oxford University and AstraZeneca, will be available on a non-profit basis “in perpetuity” to low- and middle-income countries through the COVAX program.

While this may become a global mechanism for vaccine purchase, it does not guarantee sustained equitable access or its relationship to the challenged patent system. Here are two new facts that reposition Latin America in the debate on health sovereignty: one, Argentina and Mexico will be the countries in charge of manufacturing the Oxford-Astra-Zeneca vaccine in Latin America. Second, the President of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado, supported by 37 countries, has promoted a proposal within the World Health Assembly for a pool of voluntary licenses for drugs, vaccines and technologies to be freely shared.

At the most critical moment of regional integration, can Argentina and Mexico be pivots in building regional relationships around vaccines as a regional public good in order to address health challenges and their social, political and economic determinants? Can the region become a key player in this new phase of the pandemic in the search for mechanisms to ensure equitable access?

Covid-19 as a mirror of social and health debts in the region

The Covid-19 in Latin America reveals and deepens immediate health challenges in weak, or weakened, states with fragile health systems, as well as medium and long-term challenges related to combating poverty and socio-economic and gender inequality and inequities. It should be remembered that Covid-19 is in addition to epidemics such as dengue fever, the cases of which have exceeded 1.6 million so far this year, mostly in Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Argentina and Colombia. In addition, there are cases of Chikungunya, Zika and Malaria, with Venezuela leading the way since 2017.

Indeed, health crises exacerbate all forms of social injustice manifested in inequalities in access to health services, education, access to social protection, and gender justice. ECLAC has called for the reconstruction of a regional social pact that, at best, promotes a sustainable and inclusive development model, and at worst, mitigates the loss of progress in the fight against poverty and inequality. This is a healthy expression in a context where, until now, the priority has been to encourage individuals to leave in order to contain the expansion of the Covid in most countries.

Unlike in the past decade, there is no common engine but rather a retraction of regionalism associated with the loss of regional leadership.

In fact, the pandemic is breaking out in a region that shows a clear incongruence between, on the one hand, the increase in regional and border problems and, on the other, the decrease in concerted responses. Unlike in the past decade, there is no common engine but rather a retraction of regionalism associated with the loss of regional leadership. In addition, there is a minimalist agenda associated with trade, which explains the absence of solid regional responses to the crisis and, above all, to Covid-19.

There is also tension in political-ideological terms and significant differences among States on how to respond to the international geopolitical context. Even so, the race for a vaccine against Covid also accelerated the race for articulation and agreement in what would strictly be the reconstruction of health sovereignty.

Vaccine as an engine of integration? There is a legacy

A decade ago, UNASUR and Mercosur would have allowed for coordination and cooperation in the face of the health crisis, as well as a joint strategy for the purchase of medicines, including vaccines. It is sufficient to recall common actions in the framework of the H1N1 influenza pandemic, when the ministers of health met in Ecuador and agreed to undertake joint actions to establish mechanisms for the joint negotiation and purchase of the vaccine, aspects that would ensure equitable access, regional production capacity, antivirals and diagnostic kits.

In the area of access to medicines, for example, projects such as the Drug Price Bank were developed, and both UNASUR and MERCOSUR have been driving the joint negotiation of High-Cost Drug Prices. Even, at the global level, the countries of the region defended as a bloc at the World Health Assembly the intellectual property rights on access to medicines. In this context, they denounced the monopoly exercised by pharmaceutical companies, especially in the definition of prices.

Latin America has plenty of experiences and mechanisms to recreate health sovereignty through cooperation. A more effective articulation among regional integration mechanisms could allow for the expansion of the exchange of epidemiological and surveillance data, as well as the adoption of incentives for technological innovation. Strategies for the joint negotiation and purchase of vaccines and treatments for Covid-19 could also benefit greatly if the mechanisms could be developed in an articulated manner.

The vaccine does not erase what the physician and anthropologist Paul Farmer calls the pathologies of power, nor political-ideological differences that weakened regional structures as the basis of common strategies. Nor does it solve problems of trade diversion, much less is it an antidote for governments not to repeat the many discriminatory practices shown during the approach to the pandemic. As an example, policies that exclude refugees and undocumented migrants from access to health services and social protection systems.

The vaccine is a commercial incentive if you will. However, it can also be an incentive to energize a new regional social pact based on synergies between networks of laboratories and regional scientific communities, as well as an articulation of public and private efforts that privileges shared responsibility for universal and equitable access to vaccines as a regional public good, and to health as a universal right.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Photo of the President of Peru in Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

Polling errors, media and democracy in Brazil

Those who work in the professional field of public opinion in Latin America know that there is a media embargo on the publication of opinion polls, surpassed only by the traditional institutes of demoscopy in their respective countries. In the large traditional media, few pollsters always have the doors open to the dissemination of surveys of voting intentions, while more recent companies often fail to publish their data. This exclusivity is not based on quality or predictability, as more recent pollsters have shown better results than traditional ones in the last elections.

The tradition of publishing surveys from a few sources, which dates back to a time when there were only such pollsters, no longer makes sense. This attitude discourages the free market in public opinion, does not encourage an increase in the quality of polls and prevents public access to a greater plurality of reliable information sources.

The traditional research institutes in Latin America were born and consolidated in the 20th century when there were very few institutions with the technical and intellectual capacity for the hard work of understanding the social climate of entire populations.

Harvard University political scientist Pippa Norris says that one of the characteristic features of the evolution of election campaigns throughout the 20th century can be identified, among other things, by the centrality that opinion polls gained in politics. The author explains that in pre-modern campaigns, candidates presented their own proposals and sought the consensus of the public without resorting to opinion polls. According to Norris, with the advent of postmodern campaigns in recent decades, politicians began to use polls to understand voters and thus build a wide variety of personalized speeches to suit each segment of the electorate.

as new research companies have emerged over the past ten years that, while relatively less well known, have demonstrated greater capacity in electoral forecasting than traditional institutes in several countries.

In this context, major media outlets partnered with traditional pollsters at a time when such research was extremely costly, complex and accessible to very few. Today, the picture is much more complex, as new research companies have emerged over the past ten years that, while relatively less well known, have demonstrated greater capacity in electoral forecasting than traditional institutes in several countries. Above all, thanks to the use of more precise and analytical sample stratification methods, which take into account social aspects that the old surveyors do not yet use.

An emblematic example is the Brazilian research institute AtlasIntel, which conducts surveys exclusively via the web. The pollster achieved the best performance in the Brazilian municipal elections of 2020, according to the newspaper O Antagonista, and was the only pollster to get the result right in the Argentine presidential election of 2019, according to El Clarín. AtlasIntel was also the best pollster in the recent U.S. presidential elections. According to FiveThirtyEight data, Atlas came in first, beating traditional pollsters like YouGov, Gallup, Pew Research and Ipsos. In this context, other pollsters were also more accurate than traditional ones in their predictions, but there was resistance in the United States from the media in publishing their results.

While the US newspapers assumed that their pollsters failed to predict in 2020, the pollsters that scored better were silenced and the misconception was conveyed that this choice could not be adequately predicted.

What is happening is a huge resistance from the media to understand that a generational renewal of pollsters is taking place. This resistance is reinforcing a kind of “publishing oligopoly”, where pollsters with an uncontested ability to predict face enormous difficulties in disseminating their research due to an explicit editorial decision in favor of traditional institutes.

It is not uncommon to hear journalists from different countries claim that they cannot disseminate data from ‘other’ pollsters because of an editorial decision. This choice is in some cases justified by an exclusive agreement between the media and the institute, and in others by fear of reprisals for access to future data.

There are cases where the media self-censorship to avoid possible cuts in public advertising funds.

In other cases, there is an explicit editorial orientation not to disclose surveys that may “touch” the interests of certain politicians or parties. There are cases where the media self-censorship to avoid possible cuts in public advertising funds.

Researchers Belén Amadeo and María Eugenia Tesio, from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), conducted a study in 2015 on how the Argentine media deal with the publication of electoral surveys, citing companies such as Poliarquía, Management & Fit and CEOP. The study reveals that the media end up using surveys as tools that reproduce the editorial stance on certain candidates, without properly analyzing them in technical depth.

According to Ecuadorian-Brazilian political scientist Maria Villarreal, from the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO), in the case of Ecuador there is a line more focused on supporting or opposing certain political forces in the choice of surveys to be published. The leading institutes are Cedatos, CELAG, Opecuador, Informe Confidencial and Market. In addition, Villarreal states that as the presidential elections of February 2021 approach, completely contradictory polls are circulating in the media, which tends to increase voter distrust.

An emblematic case is that of the company First Análisis y Estudios in Paraguay, which is considered the traditional institute of the large media. In 2018, this company published three surveys that were considered the most reliable, but which failed with an error of around 20% in relation to the result of the presidential election.

Political scientist Alejandro Moreno of the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), says that in his country the margins of error have gradually increased over the last two decades and that “a generational replacement of public pollsters would be welcome”.

This scenario is detrimental to the development of the public opinion sector as it limits market freedom, favors concentration and weakens professionalism. Moreover, this preference for traditional institutes, whose analyses are often wrong in their predictions, ends up undermining the credibility of an entire professional field, feeding conspiracy theories.

From the point of view of the media, in post-conflict times, the systematic reproduction of wrong predictions increases distrust of institutions, especially the media itself.

Some media are also unwilling to engage in an open debate about the quality of surveys and to compare their results. This is despite the fact that public exposure of mistakes and successes encourages an increase in the quality of research.

In general, the quality of public communication directly affects the quality of democracy itself, as Professor Maria Helena Weber of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) states. Public communication is the best source of information available for the public to orient itself and make decisions of a political nature.

Polls have the power to affect the vote. Therefore, the media, as the guardians of democracy, have a duty to guide the public by publishing polls from different and contrasting sources, so that voters can form their own opinion. Finally, and especially in these times of “ideological terra-planning”, it is important to initiate a technical debate on how surveys are conducted and why their results vary so much between pollsters.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Foto por Iván PC en Foter.com / CC BY

The Challenges of the constitutional process in Chile

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The recent constitutional plebiscite held in Chile showed three milestones. First, the option in favor of constitutional change was widely supported by the citizenry. Second, the results obtained by the Constituent Convention option confirm the distance that exists between the citizenry and the political institutions. Third, this election, despite the pandemic, had the highest levels of participation since the introduction of voluntary voting (2012).

participation was not homogeneous in the country.

However, participation was not homogeneous in the country. This is an antecedent to be considered in order to ensure that the constitutional discussion really involves a large part of the citizenry. When considering the regions of southern Chile, participation did not exceed 50 percent. This data contrasts with the results obtained in the northern regions and in the Metropolitan Region, which increased their participation levels in relation to the last election and some reached levels above 50%.

What would explain the lower participation in these southern regions? This is a relevant question for the upcoming process. In this column, I dare to put forward some hypotheses, analyzing what happened specifically in the Araucanía Region.

This is one of the poorest and most unequal regions of the country, presenting a long-lasting Chilean-Mapuche conflict as an identity element that has generated a series of symbolic and material consequences for its development. The presence of the State is low and it has a large rural population. In the last election, the participation reached 40.15%, a lower percentage than in the last presidential election. Only Temuco, the regional capital, obtained a similar percentage of participation to that election.

Three structural elements would explain this low participation. First, the networks and informal institutions act as the functional equivalent of the state. Therefore, informal participation mechanisms that promote a personalist and traditional logic predominate. These institutions include clientelism, nepotism and patronage. It is no coincidence that municipal elections show greater electoral participation in the region.

Since there were no candidates in this plebiscite, the possibilities of carrying out clientelism were nil.

Indeed, the municipality is perceived as a stable and protected workplace by the population, unlike the precarious characteristics of the labor market in Araucania. Therefore, the election of the local authority is not only important because of the ideological political aspects involved, but also because of the economic and labor opportunities. Since there were no candidates in this plebiscite, the possibilities of carrying out clientelism were nil.

Secondly, a conservative and passive civic culture has developed in the region. The Araucanía Regional Barometer recently applied in the region supports this idea since only 54% of those surveyed in the region stated that Democracy is preferable to any other form of government. 13% declare that they have participated in the last 5 years in passive demonstrations, despite the context of inequality and poverty that the region experiences. And with respect to the interest in regional and national politics this does not exceed 4 points on an ascending scale from 1 to 10. In terms of electoral results, the right generally performs better than the left.

Thirdly, together with other researchers, we propose that there is a multiplicity of latent conflicts in the region. The Chilean-Mapuche conflict is the most visible, but it is not the only one. In addition, the solutions that have been proposed lately promote police and control measures. Labor, legal, socioeconomic and environmental conflicts are also important. Concentrating only on manifest situations of conflict makes any structural political solutions that may be developed invisible, thus inhibiting participation in political decision-making and deliberation.

For these reasons, it is necessary to generate contextualized actions to promote participation in the Chilean constitutional process. This is a long-term process in which we must define our political institutionality and the essential rules that will govern us in the coming years.

The Constitution safeguards a certain vision of society and is legitimate when it reflects the values, principles and beliefs accepted by society as a whole. It also reflects power relations, since it distributes through different bodies the decision-making that will affect the entire country. Therefore, we are facing a task that requires that all of us be active participants in this important process and that high standards of transparency be safeguarded.

Transparency is fundamental to reverse the mistrust that citizens have towards political actors and institutions.

Transparency is fundamental to reverse the mistrust that citizens have towards political actors and institutions. The right to access public information is already enshrined in law, but this is not yet a right enshrined in the Constitution. Moreover, according to figures from the Council for Transparency, its use has been restricted to minority groups of the population with higher levels of education. This process opens up an opportunity for citizens to really take ownership of this right and exercise it without restriction.

Having access in clear and civic language to the declarations of heritage and interest of the conventional constituents, knowing who financed their campaigns, having access to the discussions on the contents of the constitution, knowing the objective of the meetings they will hold with interest groups, are practices that should be promoted to avoid this process losing legitimacy or being captured by a minority. In addition, transparency should be a founding principle of all institutions designed or transformed in this process.

It is not enough that information be available to safeguard the credibility of the constitutional discussion; the role that citizens can play in monitoring and follow-up is crucial.  In this context, participation should not be restricted to voting on or ratifying certain decisions; it is fundamental to assume and put into practice a complex concept of participation that includes different degrees of citizen involvement as well as contributing ideas to the constitutional discussion. 

It is vital that the citizenry adopt an active attitude about what is being discussed and where the constitution is headed, since the final text will have relevant consequences for our daily lives.

The role that institutions such as the Council for Transparency, pro-transparency organizations, regional universities and local radio stations can play becomes relevant, since in addition to promoting the principles of transparency and the right to access to information, they can develop instances of training so that citizens can take an active role in the debate that is opening.

*Translation from Spanish by Emmanuel Guerisoli

Foto de pslachevsky en Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA